Bitcoin's challenge to the $100,000 mark was unsuccessful, but the outlook remains bright.
Bitcoin reached an annual peak of $99,468 on November 23, with the greed index climbing to 97, but ultimately failed to break the $100,000 mark and fell back to $91,290. Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating in the range of $95,000 to $97,000. Although short-term volatility exists, experts generally believe that Bitcoin is in the mid-stage of a bull market and its upward potential is still highly anticipated by the market.
Global policy dynamics: the trend of nationalizing Bitcoin reserves.
The United States approved BTC and ETH spot ETFs this year, leading a new trend in global cryptocurrency policy. After Trump's re-election, he actively recruited officials supportive of cryptocurrencies to promote the implementation of more friendly policies. Following the U.S. proposal to include Bitcoin as national reserve funds, rumors have also emerged in Canada in recent days.
According to the latest report from Cointelegraph, Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim announced at the city council meeting on November 26 that he intends to submit a proposal to increase Bitcoin in the city's balance sheet, titled 'Maintaining the city's purchasing power through financial resource diversification: becoming a Bitcoin-friendly city.' The proposal aims to combat inflation, reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar, and attract technological innovation funds through Bitcoin's diversified financial attributes. This marks Canada's move towards a national-level Bitcoin reserve policy, following some state governments in the United States.
A global trend is gradually emerging to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, which not only enhances its financial status but also signifies changes in the flow patterns of market funds.
Currency prices and market capitalization
In 2024, the overall performance of the cryptocurrency market is strong:
Bitcoin's annual compound growth rate (CAGR) has reached 154%, firmly maintaining its focus in the financial market.
Ethereum's price has increased over 50% year-on-year due to the development of decentralized applications (dApps), continuously attracting enterprises and developers.
Recently, the prices of cryptocurrencies such as XRP, Solana, and Cardano have surged by double digits, pushing the total market capitalization above $3.5 trillion.
User numbers and institutional participation: market fundamentals are solid.
Singapore's cryptocurrency payment company Triple-A released a report in May this year stating that by 2024, the number of global cryptocurrency holders has reached 562 million, accounting for 6.8% of the global population, with an annual growth rate of 34%. A report from Chainalysis also shows that consumer acceptance of virtual assets has significantly increased, especially in the Asia-Pacific and Latin America regions, where the popularity of blockchain payments and Web3 applications has driven user growth.
In addition to retail investors, institutional participation has accelerated this year in response to the approval of ETFs. According to data from Bitcoin Treasuries, there are already 93 organizations publicly holding Bitcoin globally (including countries, companies, ETFs, etc.), of which ETFs account for 5.9%, approximately 1.25 million Bitcoins, while national reserves hold 529,000 Bitcoins. Peng Yunxian, founder of the Taiwanese cryptocurrency exchange HOYA BIT, predicts that as more companies and governments incorporate Bitcoin into their asset portfolios, institutions will gradually replace retail investors as the dominant force in the market.
Market outlook: optimistic short-term and long-term outlook.
Although it has not been able to break through the $100,000 mark, under the continuous support of major countries and the increase in institutional adoption rates, Bitcoin is still expected to challenge this target before the end of the year.
CryptoQuant, a cryptocurrency data analysis company, also stated that this is a temporary pullback. Compared to market peak indicators in previous bull markets, there is still significant room for growth. Bitcoin is expected to reach at least $147,000 before hitting the upper limit of this market cycle.
Analysts at ARK Invest, a U.S. investment management company, stated that the target price for January 1 falls between $104,000 and $124,000, currently around the mid-point of the bull market, and by 2030, Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million in the best-case scenario.
Famous Wall Street investment bank Bernstein forecasts a target price of $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz predicts a price of $500,000 by 2025.
Peng Yunxian, founder of the Taiwanese cryptocurrency exchange HOYA BIT, stated:
The open attitude of global policies and the active inflow of institutional funds are laying a more solid foundation for the cryptocurrency market. Although short-term volatility remains, the long-term potential of the market is unquestionable.
The market is ushering in a new round of policy dividends and institutional participation fever. Bitcoin's breakthrough is just a matter of time, and the next steps in the cryptocurrency market are even more worth looking forward to.
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