As Bitcoin (BTC) price approaches the $100,000 threshold, it is expected to reach a historic milestone. This significant price increase has sparked optimism among investors, confirming Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market.

However, despite the optimistic outlook, Bitcoin is not completely immune to potential downside pressure. The factors that maintain Bitcoin's price stability—long-term investors (LTH)—are showing signs of volatility, raising concerns about the possibility of a short-term price drop.

Long-term investor confidence shaky

Recently, long-term Bitcoin investors have shown signs of pessimism. The HODLer net position change indicator tracking LTH behavior has turned negative.

This change indicates that a large number of long-term investors are taking profits. Negative values for this indicator typically indicate a decline in confidence, which could put downward pressure on Bitcoin.

As LTH is regarded as a pillar of Bitcoin's price, their selling could disrupt market momentum. These investors tend to hold assets during market volatility, helping to maintain price stability.

When they start to sell, it could lead to increased price volatility. If this trend continues, it may result in price adjustments, especially as BTC approaches the $100,000 threshold.

Despite LTH holding a pessimistic view in the short term, Bitcoin's macro momentum remains strong. An important indicator to watch is the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross, which is currently in a neutral zone.

Although it has not yet entered the bullish zone (below -1.6), the NVT Golden Cross indicator remains an important signal for Bitcoin's future price trend. History shows that when the NVT indicator crosses into the pessimistic area (above 2.2), the market typically views this as a sell signal.

Currently, Bitcoin has not yet reached this pessimistic area, indicating that there is still room for growth. The NVT Golden Cross indicator continues to provide positive signals, confirming that Bitcoin has enough momentum to continue rising before facing any significant downside pressure.

As long as the NVT indicator remains firmly in the neutral zone, Bitcoin still has a chance to break through the $100,000 mark without facing immediate downside pressure.

Bitcoin price creates history

Bitcoin's price is currently fluctuating around $96,572, close to the historic $100,000 threshold. Due to institutional interest and growing adoption, this token has recorded strong momentum in recent weeks. If the current trend continues, Bitcoin may break through this psychological barrier, reaching a new high of $99,595.

If the $100,000 threshold is surpassed, the next target could be $120,000. Successfully breaking the $100,000 mark may trigger a stronger buying wave from retail and institutional investors. However, the profit-taking risk from LTH remains concerning, as any significant sell-off could lead to temporary adjustments.

Despite short-term concerns, the overall trend for Bitcoin remains optimistic. The recent NVT Golden Cross indicator shows that reaching the $100,000 target is still possible. As long as Bitcoin remains above key support levels, its long-term outlook remains optimistic.

Although LTH's selling activity may cause some volatility, Bitcoin may continue its upward trend in the coming months unless there is a significant market disruption.

Over the weekend, U.S. institutional players were off work, and on-site funds began to act wildly. The trading volumes of the second-largest ETH and fifth-largest XRP exceeded Bitcoin, indicating a certain FOMO sentiment in the market. At the same time, there is a noticeable seesaw effect, where Bitcoin weakens while others strengthen. This is a typical bull market profit effect. As long as Bitcoin holds steady, the chaos will continue.

The larger issue at the moment is that if December continues to push above 100,000, the likelihood of a short-term peak will increase. From the sentiment in the off-market, a large number of potential external investors are starting to become curious about Bitcoin, and it seems everyone is discussing it. Historically, this usually occurs at relatively high levels, and it cannot be ruled out that after external funds come in, there will be a crazy surge before hitting a peak. Another possible trend is to start a pullback from this position, entering December with an adjustment, and then reigniting the bull market after Trump takes office in January. If this happens, the peak will be higher. As for how the market will choose, we need to observe and confirm further.

But undoubtedly, regardless of the trend, the cost-effectiveness of getting into Bitcoin at this position is already low. How long altcoins can stir depends on the performance of the major players in the front row. As long as the funds can hold up, small coins can continue to stir; after all, everyone’s market capitalization is not high, and a little increase is not excessive. Another detail to note is that the MEME coins leading this bull market have recently started to cool off. The adjustments in leading sectors often occur before other sectors, while the late-stage rebounds usually belong to the end phase of an upward trend. There may still be a rally later, but everyone should be cautious of the imminent risks. Don’t forget that the crypto market does drop, and every drop is a crash. Avoiding one drop means you can earn significantly more than others. Don't worry about the last one or two pennies; moving forward steadily is the hard truth.