Bitcoin returns to highs, market index remains greedy, looking at the current market from the data

This week's trading market data changesSentiment and Sectors
1. Fear and Greed Index
This week's market sentiment index rose from 80 (Extreme Greed) to 78 (Greed), and was in the (Greed) to (Extreme Greed) range throughout the week.
2. Funding rate heat map
This week, the Bitcoin funding rate reached a high of 40.55% and a low of 10.38%, and bullish sentiment remains strong.
The funding rate heat map shows the changing trends of funding rates for different cryptocurrencies, with colors ranging from green for zero rate to yellow for 50% positive rate, and black for negative rate; the white candlestick chart shows Bitcoin price fluctuations, which contrasts with the funding rate.
Market liquidity1. Total cryptocurrency market cap and stablecoin supply
This week's total cryptocurrency market cap data shows that it remains at $3.41 trillion. BTC market share is 54.52%, ETH market share is 12.56%.
Total supply of stablecoins, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, increased this week from $179.09 billion to $180.02 billion, an increase of $9.3 billion, approximately 0.5%.
2. Potential purchasing power within exchanges
Data shows that this week exchange assets showed a net inflow trend, especially with a significant inflow of USDT after the U.S. elections. This phenomenon may indicate that investors are preparing for the upcoming market volatility, and the inflow of funds into exchanges may imply an increase in short-term purchasing demand.
In addition, on November 23, the highest net capital inflow for a single day reached $14.7 billion, surpassing the previous bull market's highest single-day net inflow of $6.7 billion, indicating ample market liquidity.
3. Crypto dynamics
This week, the overall sentiment in the crypto market is bullish, with Thena, Secret, and The Sandbox leading with increases of 1,548%, 108%, and 90.2%, respectively, and mainstream coins generally rising. According to Blockchaincenter data, the current altcoin season index is 63 (+30), indicating signs of a rebound in altcoin heat.
Bitcoin technical indicators1. Bitcoin spot ETF funds
This week, Bitcoin ETF inflows were $30.7 million.
2. Bitcoin rainbow chart
The Bitcoin rainbow chart shows that Bitcoin's current price ($98,000) is in the 'consider dollar-cost averaging' zone.
3. Bitcoin net profit and loss performance
The realized net profit and loss indicator for Bitcoin shows that market sentiment is recovering, and the market structure has surpassed this year's peak. At that time, the Bitcoin price peaked in mid-March. Although the market is performing strongly in the short term, investors still need to be wary of potential correction risks, especially after rapid price increases, where profit-taking may occur.
4. Long-term Bitcoin holders
According to on-chain data, Bitcoin's long-term holders net position has significantly declined, with the red bar graph indicating that selling pressure is gradually increasing. Since mid-October, the net position change of long-term holders has shifted from positive to negative, indicating that some long-term investors are starting to gradually take profits. This phenomenon is particularly evident when Bitcoin prices rise near new highs, suggesting that part of the capital in the market chooses to take profits at high levels, but the selling pressure has not yet reached the peak level of this year in March.
Although market sentiment is optimistic, LTH position reduction may increase short-term selling pressure, and attention needs to be paid to whether short-term holders (STH) behavior and market demand can absorb the new supply.
5. Bitcoin on-chain purchasing power
According to on-chain data, this week Bitcoin's long and short-term holder data shows that as prices rise, short-term holders (red line) significantly increased their positions, while long-term holders (blue line) reduced their positions.
Reflects the flow of funds from long-term investors to short-term speculators. As the proportion of short-term holders increases, market risk appetite heats up, but volatility risk also rises simultaneously. The reduction of positions by long-term holders indicates an increase in profit-taking behavior at high levels, and attention needs to be paid to whether short-term funds can stabilize market prices.
6. Bitcoin contract open interest
According to data, this week Bitcoin's contract open interest on exchanges rose rapidly from $62.42 billion to $62.55 billion, with contract open interest at historical highs, and at the same time, Bitcoin price is also at historical highs.
7. Coinbase Bitcoin premium index
This week's Coinbase Bitcoin premium index indicates that demand for Bitcoin in the U.S. market is still increasing. Aside from a brief negative premium during Asian trading hours on Tuesday and Wednesday, the premium rose again afterward. The positive premium difference may suggest that U.S. investors have greater purchasing power compared to global investors.
8. Short-term on-chain cost benchmark band
This week's Bitcoin short-term on-chain cost benchmark band indicates that the price is close to the upper band (red line) of $108,400, reflecting high market sentiment, and short-term investors' willingness to profit has increased. The realized price of long-term holders (blue line) is $76,500.
In the short term, prices at the upper band may face resistance, and the risk of a pullback increases, requiring observation of whether stability can be maintained at high levels to support further upward movement.
9. Bitcoin historical monthly return rates
According to historical data from week 48, Bitcoin's return rate was -0.37%, indicating a slight decline in Bitcoin price that week. This performance is not only below the historical average return rate (+1.60%) and median (+3.16%), but also sharply contrasts with the positive return (+8.89%) of the previous week (week 47).
Important technical indicators for Ethereum1. Ethereum spot ETF
This week, Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of approximately $44.7 million.
2. Bitcoin correlation
This week, Bitcoin's correlation with ETH and SOL was 0.21 and 0.92, respectively, up from last week's 0.80 and 0.82, indicating that Bitcoin's correlation with major tokens has risen, showing that market funds are refocusing on mainstream coins.
3. Total locked value in the DeFi market (TVL)
This week's data shows that the total locked value in the DeFi market increased from $125.032 billion last week to $117.286 billion.
Retail sentiment is the best indicatorThe market is filled with pessimistic voices about Ethereum and altcoins having 'no market'. However, this is exactly a perfect contrarian indicator.
Although Ethereum has underperformed, I still firmly hold my position in it while maintaining long-term positions in altcoins (some performing well, others poorly). Whenever everyone focuses on the price rise of Bitcoin and abandons positions in altcoins and Ethereum, only when they frantically chase BTC at local tops will the real market for altcoins and Ethereum begin.
In past cycles, capital entering the crypto space faced various obstacles, such as difficulties in deposits and withdrawals, uncertain regulations, pending legal cases, and excessive caution from trading platforms and crypto businesses. Now, this situation has undergone a complete turnaround. The launch of spot ETFs and regulatory clarity has not only opened the floodgates for capital entering the crypto space but also provided opportunities for funds wanting to invest in crypto startups.
This bull market has the most explosive potential in history, including altcoins and Ethereum. Be patient! Once the big bull market starts, the scale of capital inflows will be immeasurable.