Analyst discusses hot topics:
Woke up this morning startled by Bitcoin, which dropped a bit more. I opened my phone and saw everyone asking: Why can't we break through the psychological barrier of 100,000 dollars? To be honest, this question is quite philosophical; it's both simple and complex. It seems just a step away, yet we can't seem to take that step, leaving people feeling anxious.
From trends, data to information, I haven't seen any negative signals recently. On the contrary, Bitcoin's fundamentals seem quite stable. More and more listed companies are starting to allocate Bitcoin as a reserve asset, like MSTR (MicroStrategy) buying 55,000 bitcoins at once.
This indicates that the recognition of cryptocurrencies is increasing, but such purchases often occur through OTC (over-the-counter) transactions, which have limited direct impact on market prices. Therefore, the price is not rising because of heavy selling pressure in the market, but because the 'influence' of these buying actions has not been rapidly transmitted to market sentiment.
This morning I scanned the news, and the Federal Reserve mentioned a possible rate cut in December. The new Treasury Secretary candidate is also suggesting cuts in federal spending, which should be considered positive news for the market.
Moreover, the background emotions of the election have not changed, and these conditions do not seem to have any factors that are unfavorable to Bitcoin's price. So currently, the greater possibility is that market sentiment is weakening, especially the enthusiasm for FOMO has diminished, and people are no longer eager to chase the rise but instead choose to wait and see.
In fact, for Bitcoin, the analyst believes that 100,000 dollars is not a question of 'whether it can' but rather 'when it will'. Be a bit more patient! Perhaps after the spot ETF data comes out, market confidence will return.
For the analyst, it feels like seeing a train full of dreams on the road. It slowly climbs up the hill; although the speed is not fast, you know it will eventually cross the peak and head for a farther place.
From last night until now, Bitcoin has encountered strong resistance, dropping to as low as 92666. Such fluctuations are not unusual for Bitcoin, but they still make people feel tense.
Many friends ask: Can it hold steady? To be honest, if it can't hold steady, the altcoin season may indeed be hopeless. But if it holds steady, the next one should be Ethereum's turn to gain strength.
The question is, now we just have to see how the market manipulators script their play. If Bitcoin experiences another wave of a 10,000-point correction while Ethereum follows with a 150-point drop, those altcoins are likely to get dragged down by about 30%. If this situation arises, the crypto market may have to endure another bloodbath.
Recently, I've seen many friends opening contracts, resulting in both long and short positions getting liquidated, leaving their assets wiped out. I have to say, pursuing high returns indeed requires bearing corresponding costs. This is an iron law of the crypto world: those who want to win more often lose even worse.
We cannot predict the future—whether it will rise or fall, to put it bluntly, these belong to the realm of 'crypto fortune tellers'. As believers in science, we do not read fortunes; we only prepare.
The market has fallen; how should we respond? The market has risen; how should we operate? Only by planning ahead and taking control can we stand undefeated in the crypto world, which is full of temptations and traps.
So when everyone is still predicting 'will it rise or fall', why not ask yourself: If there is a crash today, is your position stable enough? If there is a surge tomorrow, can your plan keep up? Whether it's a storm or a rainbow, the only thing we can do is prepare and be ready to face any possible future.
In summary: The crypto world is not a casino; it is a true test of human nature. If you can't even control yourself, how can you control the overall situation?
Analyst observes the trend:
Today, Bitcoin has a high probability of price adjustment in the short term, currently with a greater likelihood of downward movement. Without the support of large buyers like MicroStrategy, maintaining the price will become more difficult.
Additionally, the Nasdaq is closed this week. If trading volume decreases, some price defenses may be breached. Therefore, it is crucial to manage risks strictly when trading this week.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 95000
Second resistance level: 95900
Support level reference:
First support level: 94400
Second support level: 93700
Today's suggestion:
Since we are currently in an oversold area rebound, it can be seen as a technical rebound range. If the price breaks above 95K again, the possibility of a rebound in the short term can be maintained, but the overall trend is downward, so it is recommended to take profit within the profit range and then shift to a strategy of adjustment.
The second support at 93700 is also a favorable entry price for short-term trading. If the price ultimately closes above the previous low, it can be considered a relatively safe support. If the price breaks below the previous low, the downside risk will increase, so this support line will serve as a key reference.
If a strong bullish candle appears during the day while the previous adjustment bearish candle shows a slight decline, it can be considered a reasonable adjustment. Consider entering after assessing trading volume.
11.26 Analyst's strategic setup:
Long entry reference: around 91800 light long. If it retraces to 89200, go long directly. If it breaks below 89200, exit. Target: 93700-94400-95000 (do not enter if the position is not reached).
Short entry reference: 95500-95900 light short target: 94400-93700
