We are still in a cycle of sector rotation; capital has not yet truly acted on altcoins. This means that as Bitcoin adjusts and brings altcoins down, it also provides us with an opportunity to enter. Moreover, next week is nearing the end of the month; after a month of growth, could there be a possibility for some action in the last week? The PCE data on Wednesday and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy minutes are also key points.
Money can be earned endlessly, but it can be lost completely. Everyone must reduce their positions to secure profits. In a bull market, the losses due to greed are the most significant, so do not chase highs. Do not bet against the top. Maintain good position management. We all have a bright future!!!
Daily BTC market analysis: From the K-line perspective, the 1-hour level is down, the 4-hour level is rebounding, the 12-hour level is down, and the daily level is weak and is about to consolidate or decline. The intraday resistance is at 99,400, and the support level is at 95,000 USD.
FTX has confirmed that it will start a reorganization plan early next year.
Moreover, it is expected to start distributing compensation of about 16.5 billion dollars to previous users, meaning this is directly compensated to small investors, and how will these small investors react while holding this compensatory cash in a bull market?
The market will also welcome a wave of liquidity belonging to old users of the crypto circle, so don't be afraid during the retracement, as cleaning up positions also provides us with an opportunity to enter.
SAND surged 100% in two days; established public chains are awakening collectively.
The following is the performance of the top 100 tokens in terms of price increase over the last 24 hours; we can see that SAND (which surged over 100% in the past two days) and MANA, two established metaverse concept coins, have recently increased astonishingly.
Performance of various sectors over the past week.
According to Artemis data, in the blockchain sector over the past week:
The largest average increase of 36.4% is in Data Availability (Celestia, Dymension, but there are relatively few tokens in this category).
The second place is Gaming with 25.4% (SAND, AXS, MANA…).
The third place is established public chains with 22.1% (ADA, VeChain, IOTA…).
Regarding altcoins, let's discuss some questions that friends might be interested in.
1. Why has there not been a widespread surge in altcoins like in 2021?
The answer is as follows: The entire year of 2021 was in a period of the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing, with plenty of hot money. However, we have just started to cut interest rates, and there is still some distance to large-scale monetary easing. Nevertheless, it has improved compared to the beginning of this year, and future developments are worth looking forward to. In fact, 2021 was just the first half where altcoins surged together; in the second half, it concentrated on popular tracks, while many other coins did not see any progress. Therefore, we need to learn how to select projects.
2. How to select quality altcoins?
In popular sectors like public chains, MEME, AI, games, L2, DEFI, etc., the performance of projects within the same sector can also vary. For example, in MEME, people, doge, and floki are all old-school MEMEs, but people’s increase is very small, while doge and floki are soaring. Why is that? Has anyone thought about this question?
In terms of narratives: for example, Doge gained traffic and capital injection because of Musk's mention, triggering market speculation, and the price naturally improved. Regarding project community team operations: community teams actively create narratives or promote the progress, such as after being listed on Binance, they expand to platforms like CB, Bithumb, Upbit, etc. Strong market makers also play a crucial role: supported by strong market makers.
Meeting these conditions will make the valuation and increase more potential; conversely, it will be restricted. This rule applies equally to public chains, gaming, DEFI, and other tracks, as any coin’s speculation relies on traffic and capital.
Now, let's talk about public chains: not just any public chain project is worth playing. Look at the past cycle; sol and inj have survived and hit new historical highs again. But what about others?
In addition to the points mentioned above, there is also the investment team. I mentioned omni, alt earlier, and sol, inj, sui, apt, omni, alt, etc. These are all backed by JUMP Investments; I suggest looking it up. They are a prominent forex market maker globally.
Without saying much, the increases of sol, sui, and inj have already proven everything.
How to judge market speculation and new tracks?
You can pay attention to the dynamics of Binance, CB, the macroeconomic situation in the United States, mainstream media, and hot topics in the US stock market, as well as the statements of celebrities in the crypto field, to find corresponding narrative projects in the crypto market and analyze them, closely following the market speculation trends. The market is always right.
In the past one or two years, new sectors like Depin, RWA, Payfi, BTCfi, etc., have emerged; it is essential to pay attention to whether similar projects have attracted significant capital.
The speculation surrounding DOGE and PNUT over the past month is a testament to this. Even if it is impossible to predict, timely follow-up can grasp opportunities, as PNUT did not achieve success overnight.
What indicators can determine the arrival of the altcoin season?
Although Bitcoin saw some adjustment last night, the trend of the aforementioned strong coins is still considered robust. How can we determine whether the altcoin season has arrived, or is it just the main force harvesting short positions? Perhaps we can observe the changes in BTC.D (Bitcoin’s market share).
When the altcoin season arrives, Bitcoin's price increase will gradually be surpassed by other coins, causing BTC.D to gradually fall from its high. Particularly, when BTC.D starts to plummet sharply from a high point, it usually signifies that market funds are flowing into altcoins, marking an important sign for the start of the altcoin season.
Historically, when BTC.D drops below 50% and further declines to around 40%, it may be the best time to capture the explosive growth of altcoins. Currently, BTC.D has recently adjusted from over 60% to the current 59.37%, but there is still a considerable distance to 50%, and BTC.D has not dropped below 50% since the beginning of this year.
However, this year has seen multiple favorable indicators for Bitcoin. Will the indicators for the arrival of the altcoin season change? Time will tell.
Reminder for investors: The volatility of altcoins is generally large, so users should pay attention to risks.
Lastly, let's talk about why Xianxian is optimistic about these three coins: BAN, CAT, KOMA.
Let's start with BAN. The market popularity of this coin is extremely high; OK is also promoting this 'banana' coin. There is a banana logo on Musk’s rocket, and Sun has also acquired banana coins. There has been strong promotion in the community, and various media often discuss this. A project with heat and community cannot be underestimated in its potential.
As for CAT and KOMA, BNB recently went live on Kraken, which is equivalent to gaining recognition from traditional capital. Many may not have heard of Kraken, but it is on par with COINBASE and ROBINHOOD.
After BNB is unblocked, it is equivalent to BSC chain being unblocked as well, so more people will pay attention to projects on BSC in the future.
CAT itself has a certain degree of recognition; other meme coins may just be pure memes, while it has over 4 billion views on YOUTUBE, FACEBOOK, and TIK TOK, and currently, the BN wallet still holds 5% of the tokens.
KOMA, from a market perspective, has high market heat, and it has been continuously rising, with a market cap of only 50 million. Just like ACT back then, which had a market cap of about 22 million and surged about 12 times after being listed on BN. Such low market cap, high heat, and continuous rise coins will have particularly high heat.
These are a few points observed by Xianxian. If anyone has more insights, feel free to add. Recently, more and more trending tokens have been emerging in the market, with coins like gout soaring over 40 times within ten days. Opportunities in the primary market are significant, but the risks are also more profound, making it suitable for small capital to play.
Most people only see others making money every day but do not see others losing money. Large funds are still more stable in the secondary market. Recently, chain games and layer 2 networks have performed well.
At the same time, we look forward to the surprises brought by these three coins: CAT, BAN, KOMA.
