Master the signals of the top in this bull market and withdraw in time to avoid being trapped!

1. Price
Generally speaking, during a bull market, the overall market rises by more than 2 times, and Bitcoin rises by 2-3 times.
When Bitcoin has been moving sideways for an extended period, and altcoins have risen nearly the same amount, caution is warranted. The market has severely exceeded and overdrawn future value, and it is important to learn to stop appropriately.

2. On-chain Trading Volume
During a bull market, on-chain trading volume usually expands significantly, with frequent capital movement. However, it is worth noting that when prices reach new highs and on-chain trading volume begins to decline, it is an important signal of a market top.
For example, in the later stages of the bull market in 2021, although on-chain trading volume briefly surged, it gradually shrank afterwards, indicating a weakening willingness of market participants to enter.

3. Leverage and Lending Data
In the DeFi market, leverage and lending data are important indicators for assessing market sentiment:
Surge in lending demand: Investors borrow stablecoins to buy mainstream assets in large quantities, showing high market sentiment.
High liquidation risk: If the liquidation prices of most borrowed funds approach market prices, it indicates that investors are overly optimistic, increasing leverage risk.
Typically, excessive leverage can trigger a series of liquidations with even slight market fluctuations, marking the beginning of a bull market collapse.

4. Number of New Wallets
In the late stages of a bull market, the number of new wallets significantly increases, with many newcomers entering the market. It's especially important to be cautious when retail investors open many wallet addresses.
For instance, at the peak of the 2021 bull market, active users on MetaMask briefly exceeded 10 million, after which the market quickly turned bearish.

5. Regulatory Policies
The cryptocurrency market is sensitive to policies, and regulatory dynamics often determine market direction.
In 2017, China banned ICOs, and in 2021, mining operations were shut down; these policies directly triggered the end of the bull market. It is important to observe global policy dynamics, such as the SEC's actions in the US and China's anti-money laundering policies.

6. Institutional Fund Movements
The inflow and outflow of institutional funds are important indicators of a bull market, such as Grayscale's BTC holdings and the net inflow and outflow of ETF funds. If institutional funds begin to reduce their holdings in mainstream assets or shift to other areas, it indicates that the market has entered the late stages of a bull market.
At the end of a market cycle, the speed of fund inflows slows down, and it may even turn to outflows, meaning net selling, which also indicates that the market is about to end. This is an important reference indicator.

7. Market Capitalization and Valuation
During a bull market, the market capitalization and valuation of many cryptocurrencies may deviate from their fundamentals.
For example, in 2021, DOGE's market capitalization briefly entered the top five, and certain NFT projects had valuations reaching hundreds of millions of dollars. If similar bubble phenomena appear again, it indicates that the market is overheated and may correct at any time.

8. Total Market Capitalization Compared to Global Economy
The cryptocurrency market can also be measured for bubbles using the 'Buffett Indicator.' When the total market capitalization of the crypto market exceeds a certain threshold (e.g., 15%) of global GDP, it suggests that market valuations are too high.
For instance, in 2021, the total market capitalization briefly exceeded $3 trillion, while global GDP was about $85 trillion, corresponding to about 3.5%. This rapid expansion is a risk signal.

9. Media Public Opinion
When mainstream media starts to hype 'there's no top to the bull market' or 'Bitcoin will reach $1 million,' caution is warranted. The media's intense coverage often reflects overheated market sentiment and is an important signal of a market top.

10. Significant Corrections or Fluctuations
In a bull market, while prices continue to rise, if there are sudden drops in a single day or prolonged sideways movements, it may be a precursor to capital flight.
For example, at the end of the bull markets in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin experienced several significant adjustments, leading to subsequent bear markets.

11. Discussions Among People Around You
When your friends, colleagues, or even family members who have never engaged with cryptocurrencies start discussing buying Bitcoin or altcoins, it's time to be cautious. A concentration of retail investors entering the market often marks the end of a bull market.
In 2017 and 2021, this phenomenon was very pronounced, and the last ones to buy were often these 'latecomer' novice investors. #BTC