Today, the feeling is almost there. Compared to the trend of the counterattack from the previous three days, the trend has become more apparent, and many sectors that have been dormant for a long time are gradually emerging, starting to break through on a monthly basis in batches.
At this stage, unloading old positions is crucial. In my view, guessing the top in a bull market and determining the bottom at the end of a bear market is relatively simpler in the latter case. The macro fundamentals can explain many things when liquidity is insufficient. Currently, an optimistic and aggressive view is that if you have a firm stance on the bull market cycle, then hold firmly.
If you are conservative and deeply in the red, continue to maintain a mode of recovering your capital, and after selling, forget about those painful holdings from the past. Whether you believe it or not, a good mindset is the foundation for ensuring we make stable long-term profits in the crypto market. As long as there is profit to be taken, any position is worthwhile.
The FIL, APT, and AI concepts mentioned a few days ago have basically all started their market action. From the timeline perspective, I remain optimistic about the sustained rebound of this round of old mainstream sectors, which is expected to last over a month and a half, with hotspots gradually transitioning to other sectors that were previously popular, such as the currently stirring Ethereum L2.
As the bull market progresses, Bitcoin has become something we can hardly reach, and the output from Wall Street’s major forces and the proximity to the hundred thousand high point clearly tell us that we may never see Bitcoin below ten thousand again. As someone who has fully experienced a bull and bear cycle, I can't help but feel sad when I think of this situation. If I had only focused on Bitcoin since entering the market, perhaps I would have a little more Bitcoin in hand.
The OP mentioned yesterday continues to maintain its strength. The same saying: if the monthly OP can close above $2, then next month's high can be aggressively viewed at the $5 position. If Ethereum is the soul of altcoins, OP can be considered the bull-bear barometer of altcoins. As the most widely used L2 concept currently, the activity of OP can reflect the value logic of many quality projects at present.
The Boring Company platform under Musk announced today that it accepts Doge payments, which directly boosts Doge again. The last time I sold half my Doge, I probably won't be able to buy back at the expected position now. The positive momentum in a bull market is like this; once the news hits, liquidity flows in, and it's hard for the market not to rise.
I remember the deep bear bottom last year, whether it was Old Ma or Little Ma, or other third-party international banks, there were announcements regarding the acceptance of certain tokens for payment. However, the market often has a loud thunder but little rain; a slight rise will lead to further declines. Currently, the flames of the altcoin season have been ignited.
Lastly, I want to remind everyone that regardless of which stage our positions are in, at least prepare a reserve fund of 10% for black swan events. Looking back at historical cycles, there have always been one or several black swan events, and they generally occur every six months. Currently, the market's FOMO sentiment is gradually intensifying, and with the entry of Wall Street capital, the maturity of the crypto market is also increasing. However, the black history that everyone tends to forget under the general rising sentiment needs to be paid more attention to. A minimum of 10% reserve for black swan events is sufficient to turn risks into plans when unexpected events occur, giving us an opportunity to overtake big players in the bends.
Macro data shows that Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $485 million yesterday, and Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $91 million. From the cycle data perspective, Ethereum's inflow is in a positive upward adjustment cycle. If this data can remain stable in the long term, it will greatly help Ethereum's price in the future.
What is meant to come will come. In terms of operations, compared to a year ago when I kept advocating for dollar-cost averaging and buying Bitcoin and Ethereum, now I am more subdued. When the market is in FOMO, it is more important to choose the right timing to unload your chips than blindly chasing the rise. The most important thing against human nature is to withstand psychological pressure and desire. In summary, while firmly holding onto our chips, we must also have a plan for profit-taking.
BTC: Bitcoin is stuck at the hundred thousand line for adjustments; there is definitely no momentum for shorts at this position, and the market does not have the potential for a significant drop. The sideways movement of Bitcoin is the best feedback from the market, allowing Ethereum and other altcoins to have opportunities and expectations. From a technical perspective, the four-hour chart shows that Bitcoin has strong short-term support at the 97300 point. The bullish expectation is still a wide adjustment after breaking through a hundred thousand, with funds gradually flowing into the altcoin sector. Stay optimistic.
ETH: The turning point for Ethereum's market looks to be breaking through the 3800 point. The current high has already approached 3500 points and is gradually gaining strength, and its L2 camp has also gradually shown improved data patterns on-chain recently. The four-hour market support has risen to 3300 points, and in the short term, it looks like a trend of oscillating upwards.
Altcoins: The meme wave mentioned a few days ago has passed, and some sectors that were previously hot on-chain have continued to drain liquidity. A significant reason for this is the dexx incident. The short-term meme trend is still in decline, and expectations can be appropriately shifted. Additionally, it is emphasized that even if the meme market overall is declining, its correlation with strong coins that are being closely monitored is not significant, mainly referring to those that are not on major exchanges. The old altcoins haven't risen recently, and many have been mentioned in the comments, so I won't list them again here (recently mentioned BCH, APT, FIL, LTC, and even EOS have all moved, and from the daily volume perspective, they are far from peaking). We can't buy every coin; we should mainly focus on what we have.
Other altcoins, communication in the comments section.
The fear and greed index is 93 today. (Take precautions against profit-taking)
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!#BTC创历史最大月度涨幅 $BTC
