Recently, the ETH market has really disappointed many people, and many feel that ETH has completely fallen this round, with the newly emerged public chains like SOL, SUI, and BNB taking its funds and traffic. The main reason is that the new public chains are thriving primarily due to high performance, low gas fees, high TPS, and extreme convenience, which has indeed led some meme-loving users to these platforms, with SOL being the most typical.
So does this round of ETH still have explosive opportunities? Is it really that ETH is so weak that it can't even maintain its position as the second for a thousand years? Actually, regarding the public chain sector, I previously wrote a deep research article about the world's largest public chain - Ethereum [ETH], discussing its development over the past decade and future prospects. You can check it out.
Let's take a look at the current trend of Ethereum:
The current overall trend of Ethereum looks very weak and powerless. This year, it has fallen nearly 50% from a high of over $4,000 to a low of over $2,000, especially during the August 5 disaster, when the entire liquidation amount even exceeded BTC. After three months of bottom fluctuation, it was only after Trump came to power that it was pulled back above $3,000, and shortly after, it began another fluctuation. According to the market expectations of many people, at this time it should at least be around $4,500, at least comparable to BNB, SOL, etc., hovering and fluctuating at the previous high, waiting for an effective breakout.
Regarding the current trend of ETH, my view is that we shouldn't look at the past. At a larger level, you can refer to the breakout that started on October 17th last year. It becomes clear that there hasn't been a significant surge at this time, which indicates that the overall market is still in the early stages. Because whenever ETH starts to surge wildly, it is mostly the end of the market.
So regarding the ETH we currently hold, my strategy is: hold onto the spot, at the $3000 position, take out 40% of the position, with 1.5x leverage, and in the next 3 months, the probability of doubling is over 80%. Next, I will recharge your faith with ETH's past bull market trend and favorable policies for ETH in the near future.
From 2020 to 2021, the trend of ETH in this bull market.
In the last round in 2021, it also started with a significant breakout in November 2020. However, after the breakout, there was also a long period without a significant surge. It wasn't until 2021 that DeFi and GameFi exploded, pulling ETH from $450 to around $4,500 in just five months, followed by a black swan on May 19 that pushed the entire market into a correction and fluctuation.
So my view is that it’s not that ETH hasn’t exploded, it’s just that the time hasn't come. Many people have been asking me how much ETH’s price can reach in this round. In earlier articles, I also analyzed that I still have great expectations. I personally believe it will likely be in the range of $8,500 to $10,000. If ETH's price is around $4,500 waiting for a breakout at this stage, the overall expectation will be much higher. However, at the moment, I expect my selling price to be between $8,500 and $10,000, and I will sell in batches. Once it stabilizes above $10,000, I might hold onto my tokens for a while.
Vitalik, the founder of Ethereum, on the latest plans for Ethereum's future:
Vitalik stated at Devcon 2024 in Bangkok that Ethereum's future includes:
1, Upgrade to decentralization, anti-censorship, and anti-quantum; gradually improve efficiency and scale;
2, DA upgrade supports 100k+ TP on L2; the scale is large enough to implement various applications:
3, ENS, consumer payments, social, 'hybrid finance + non-financial', etc.
What are the key focuses of Ethereum's upgrade in the first quarter of 2025?
New consensus layer upgrade proposal: Beam Chain
Ethereum Foundation researcher proposed a new consensus layer upgrade proposal 'Beam Chain'. Justin Drake's proposal is expected to be standardized in 2025 and begin construction in 2026. This means we have a few years to prepare for this significant upgrade known as 'Ethereum 0'.
Regarding BeamChain, I’d like to share my personal views:
First, BeamChain is not Ethereum 3.0, but a large-scale iterative upgrade of the current Ethereum consensus layer BeaconChain. The proposal of BeamChain is not to solve the current problems of Ethereum: weakened mainnet value capture, fragmented ecosystem liquidity, and fragmented user interactions.
Secondly, as a new consensus layer solution, BeamChain helps improve Ethereum's scalability, anti-censorship, security, and decentralization. However, as a new narrative, BeamChain cannot save Ethereum's current price. It may push the price up in the short term, but we still need to see the market's feedback after the application is implemented.
Thirdly, Ethereum's dilemma lies in the repeated breakdown of the bottom line of the BTC/ETH exchange rate, without the market's expected automatic return to the mean. Some are rational analyses, such as the supply imbalance in Ethereum's blockchain economics, L2 siphoning and diverting the value of Ethereum's mainnet, stagnation in innovation at the application layer of the Ethereum ecosystem, and the Ethereum ecosystem losing the liquidity war of meme coins, etc. Therefore, upgrades and new technological applications must be innovated.
Prague upgrade in the first quarter of 2025
This upgrade includes two main parts: Prague execution layer upgrade and Electra protocol layer upgrade.
Unlike previous major upgrades, Pectra does not have a prominent main goal but focuses on multiple technical improvements and optimizations. This contrasts with the Dencun upgrade (which significantly reduces L2 costs) or the Shapella upgrade (which allows staking ETH withdrawals, completing Ethereum's transition to proof of stake (PoS)).
Let's take a look at Ai's latest price prediction analysis for ETH:
According to Ai, this round of ETH will reach a peak price of over $10,000, peaking at $11,223. So let's be conservative and start selling around $8,500, which is consistent with my earlier logic.
From the perspective of market makers, there is actually only one way to get retail investors to come in and take over, which is: to pump the price, making the tokens rise. When the prices rise and the new investors start to panic, they begin to fomo in, and that's when the market makers sell and start shorting to make a profit.
In the short term, I personally believe that reaching over $4,000 before Christmas should have over 90% probability. As for the major market upsurge, I think it might start in late December. With Trump's inauguration on January 20, many favorable policies for cryptocurrencies will officially come into effect. By mid-March, with market sentiment high, it is very likely to rise to around $8,000. I think at that time we should stay calm. We can clear our leverage, contracts, and some altcoins and wait for the right opportunity.
Finally: The personal investment value opinions in this article do not constitute investment advice for you. If you have better opinions, you can scan the code to add WeChat for communication.
Selected content from previous issues:
Key point: What gives institutions the confidence to predict that the future price of BTC will break through 1 million Usdt each?
1, Trump is elected, and my BTC can finally be sold for over $250,000!!!
2, Brother, if you are hesitating to buy BTC, please stay away from the crypto circle!
3, In this bull market, I only want to earn 10 times the profit. How should I operate? Let me teach you!
4, Are you lacking opportunities to make money in the crypto circle? No, absolutely not! What you lack is an excellent guide.
5, MicroStrategy's off-exchange leverage of $42 billion to buy BTC, could it become a target for Wall Street capital? == Latest content for November
6, In the past 20 days, the market capitalization of stablecoins Usdt and Usdc has increased by over 7 billion USD. Is this a sign that the crazy bull market is about to start? == Latest content for November
7, A black swan in global finance; over 320,000 people in the crypto circle exploded today, with a liquidation scale exceeding 1.2 billion USDT!
8, The shoe has dropped, and the crazy bull market has officially begun! == Latest content for November
9, The next best asset for global circulation – BTC
10, Bitcoin is already a game among major countries. What reason do you have not to buy some for yourself? == Latest content for November