Before entering 2025, VanEck has made ten predictions for the cryptocurrency market in 2025. Personally, I am quite supportive of this well-reasoned predictive analysis, as VanEck's predictions in the crypto space over the past four years have generally maintained an accuracy rate of over 85%. After all, it is a large company, and large institutions tend to be relatively conservative about overall prices and trends. Today, we will combine VanEck's predictions to interpret them in detail.
VanEck is an investment management company founded in 1955 in New York, established by John van Eck, with a rich history and extensive influence in the investment field. The Bitcoin spot ETF HODL and Ethereum spot ETF ETHV approved by the SEC in January 2024 began trading, and ETNs based on SUI were launched in Europe, with staking rewards introduced for Solana ETNs.
Here, it is necessary for us to have a detailed understanding of VanEck's development history:
In 1955, John van Eck founded Van Eck Global against the backdrop of the Marshall Plan opening Western Europe to U.S. investors, leveraging the growing international stock market to provide post-World War II investment opportunities for American investors.
In 1968, VanEck established the first open-end gold stock mutual fund in the U.S. The company launched one of the first gold funds in the U.S., the International Investors Gold Fund, and shifted most of its portfolio into the stocks of gold mining companies, managing assets exceeding $1 billion.
In 2006, VanEck launched its first gold ETF product, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, just two years after the first gold ETF in the U.S. To date, the ETF has an average trading volume of around $20 million and a total net assets under management of $13.2 billion.
On August 11, 2017, VanEck submitted an S-1 application to launch the first Bitcoin futures ETF, becoming the first ETF issuer to apply for investment in Bitcoin futures. Subsequently, VanEck hastily applied for a spot Bitcoin ETF. VanEck has always been associated with the so-called 'first applicant, bold trial and error'.
On March 2, 2021, VanEck was again the first to submit an application for a spot Ethereum ETF in 2021, almost three years after the SEC began discussions with issuers including BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark Invest. 'VanEck is known for its pioneering position in the digital asset space.'
To date, VanEck has issued over 100 ETFs, managing more than $90 billion in funds.
What are VanEck's ten predictions for the cryptocurrency market in 2025?
Additional prediction: By 2029, Bitcoin will surpass the $18 trillion gold market, trading above $1 million per coin.
Today, we will analyze and interpret the first two of the top ten predictions: the cryptocurrency bull market reaching a mid-term peak in the first quarter, and the U.S. embracing Bitcoin through strategic reserves and cryptocurrency adoption.
Prediction 1: The cryptocurrency bull market reaches a mid-term peak in the first quarter and sets a new high in the fourth quarter.
VanEck expects the cryptocurrency bull market to continue developing in 2025, reaching its first peak in the first quarter. At this cycle’s peak, we anticipate the price of Bitcoin (BTC) to be around $180,000, while the price of Ethereum (ETH) will exceed $6,000. Other notable projects, such as Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI), may break through $500 and $10 respectively.
Bitcoin: $180,000
Record ETF inflows will drive Bitcoin to a new high of $108,000 in 2024. This trend is expected to continue, with the April 2024 halving reducing new supply and increasing demand from enterprises and governments. If the U.S. government implements the proposal to establish a strategic reserve of 1 million Bitcoins, the price could reach $500,000 or higher.
Ethereum: $6,000.
Despite rising to $4,000 in 2024, Ethereum has seen a decrease in attention among investors. It is expected that the narrative will shift in 2025, with accelerated activity in Layer 2 blockchains (such as Base and Starknet), spot Ethereum ETFs attracting billions of dollars, and substantial growth of stablecoin and tokenization projects on Ethereum.
Solana: $500
In 2024, a strong recovery driven by meme coin frenzy is expected to continue to gain momentum, and this trend is anticipated to accelerate in the coming year.
After this peak, VanEck expects BTC prices to pull back by 30%, while altcoins may see greater declines of up to 60%, leading to market consolidation in the summer. However, a rebound is expected in the fall, with major tokens regaining momentum and returning to previous historical highs by year-end. To determine the timing of the market approaching its peak, we are monitoring the following key signals:
• Sustained high funding rates: When traders borrow to bet on BTC price increases and are willing to pay a funding rate exceeding 10% for three months or longer, it indicates speculative overheating.
BTC perpetual contract funding rates exceeding 10% for several months will be a bearish signal.
Data Source: GlassNode, as of December 8, 2024.
• Excess unrealized profits: If a large proportion of BTC holders have substantial paper profits (with a profit-to-cost ratio reaching 70% or higher) and remain stable, this indicates that the market is in a frenzy.
• Overvalued relative to realized value: When the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) exceeds 5, it indicates that BTC prices are far above the average purchase price, typically signaling an overheated market.
• Declining Bitcoin dominance: If Bitcoin's share of the total market capitalization in the cryptocurrency market falls below 40%, it indicates that speculative funds are flowing into higher-risk altcoins, which is typical behavior at the end of a cycle.
• Mainstream speculative phenomenon: Receiving a large number of inquiries from friends in non-crypto fields about suspicious projects is often a reliable indicator of a top signal.
These indicators have historically proven to be reliable signals of market frenzy and will guide us in formulating outlooks for the expected market cycle in 2025.
Prediction 2: The U.S. embraces Bitcoin through strategic reserves and cryptocurrency adoption.
Donald Trump's election as president has injected significant momentum into the crypto market. His administration appointed several leaders supportive of cryptocurrency to key positions, including Vice President JD Vance, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Secretary of the Treasury Mary Bessent, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, FDIC Chairman Jelena McWilliams, and Secretary of Health and Human Services RFK Jr. These appointments not only signify the end of anti-crypto policies, such as the systematic 'debanking' of crypto companies and their founders, but also mark the beginning of a policy framework positioning Bitcoin as a strategic asset. This can be referenced in my previous article, where Trump officially initiated the crypto governance model!
Development of crypto ETPs: Physical purchases, staking, and new spot approvals
The new SEC leadership or Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is expected to approve various new spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs), including VanEck's Solana product. The Ethereum ETP will expand its functionality to support staking, further enhancing its utility for holders, while both Ethereum and Bitcoin ETPs will support physical purchases/redemptions. Moreover, the SEC or Congress may repeal SEC Accounting Bulletin No. 121 (SAB 121), paving the way for banks and brokerages to custody spot crypto assets, thereby further integrating digital assets into the traditional financial infrastructure.
Sovereign Bitcoin adoption: Federal, state, and mining expansion
By 2025, the federal government or at least one state (such as Pennsylvania, Florida, or Texas) will establish Bitcoin reserves. At the federal level, this could be achieved through an executive order utilizing the Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), while bipartisan legislation remains an unknown. Meanwhile, state governments may independently take action, viewing Bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal uncertainty or a means to attract crypto investment and innovation. This previous article on the bill can serve as a reference (Bitcoin Rights Bill) was officially passed!
In Bitcoin mining, the number of countries using government resources for mining is expected to increase from the current 7 to double digits, driven by the adoption trend among BRICS countries. Russia has explicitly stated that it will settle international trade in cryptocurrencies, further highlighting Bitcoin's importance in global economic strategy.
Number of countries using government resources for mining:
Data Source: VanEck Research, as of December 2024.
VanEck expects this supportive stance towards Bitcoin to expand to a wider U.S. crypto ecosystem. With increasing regulatory clarity and incentives, the share of global crypto developers in the U.S. is expected to rise from 19% to 25%, attracting more talent and businesses back. At the same time, Bitcoin mining activity in the U.S. will flourish, with its global mining hash rate share increasing from 28% in 2024 to 35% by the end of 2025, benefiting from cheap energy and potential tax incentives. These trends will collectively solidify the U.S.'s leadership in the global Bitcoin economy.
The share of Bitcoin hash rate from U.S. publicly listed companies is expected to reach 35%
Data Source: JP Morgan, VanEck Research, as of December 6, 2024.
Corporate Bitcoin holdings: Expected to grow by 43%
In terms of corporate adoption, VanEck expects companies to continue accumulating Bitcoin from retail investors. Currently, 68 publicly listed companies account for Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and this number is expected to rise to 100 by 2025. Notably, we boldly predict that by next year, the total amount of Bitcoin held by private and public companies (currently 765,000 BTC) will exceed Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings (1.1 million BTC). This means that corporate Bitcoin holdings will achieve a significant growth of 43% over the next year.
Comparison of gold and Bitcoin holdings: Corporations and governments still have room for growth.
Data Source: VanEck Research, as of December 2024.
There are 8 more predictive analyses, and I will help you interpret them in detail in the upcoming articles.
Finally, many of the views expressed in this article represent my personal understanding and judgment of the market and do not constitute investment advice for you. If you have different opinions, feel free to communicate with me.
