After months of bloody attrition, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is escalating.

As the conflict entered its 1000th day, Ukraine utilized its newly acquired long-range missile capabilities to strike a military base within Russia. Moscow had warned against such actions but again intensified threats of a nuclear response to conventional attacks.

The two incidents that occurred earlier on Tuesday shocked investors who have long ignored the daily minutiae of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, prompting them to flock to safe-haven assets. In fact, the recent arrival of North Korean troops to the battlefield to support Russian forces has further escalated tensions.

Trump is set to return to the White House in January next year and has promised to end the war in the short term, a prospect that brings new urgency to Ukraine and its allies.

(Washington Post) reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed U.S. officials, that Biden has approved the shipment of anti-personnel landmines to Ukraine. Earlier this week, Biden abandoned his long-standing opposition to using U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) for long-range strikes against Russia.

Zelensky has been pleading for more weapons to strengthen his forces, and the Biden administration has been providing as much aid as possible to Kyiv before leaving office. German Chancellor Scholz called Putin last week to gauge his views on negotiations. Scholz stated that Putin has no interest in compromise.

Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, posted on X, saying, “The current situation presents a huge temptation for Putin to escalate.”

She said that this move would allow both Putin and Trump to blame Biden for escalating the conflict and would serve as a precondition for direct talks. She added, “This marks an exceptionally dangerous turning point, as Putin may be trying to persuade Western leaders that they must choose between a nuclear conflict or resolving issues on Russia's terms.”

This news has led investors to turn to the safest assets globally. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell by 7 basis points, while the yield on German bonds dropped by 11 basis points. These fluctuations also spread to the currency markets, boosting the yen and Swiss franc.

Nevertheless, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov still attempted to quell concerns about a nuclear war escalation, even as he accused Western countries of escalating the conflict. He stated at the G20 meeting: “We firmly support all efforts to prevent nuclear war. Nuclear weapons are primarily weapons to prevent nuclear war.”

However, Serbian President Vucic warned during a phone call with Putin last month that if Moscow is threatened, “he would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons.” Vucic stated in Belgrade on Tuesday that Russian leaders are not seeking nuclear confrontation now, as his troops are performing well on the battlefield.

The United States has stated it will not adjust its nuclear posture in response to Russia's decision to change its theory. A spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council, who wished to remain anonymous, said the move was not surprising.

The attack on Tuesday occurred while Biden and Scholz were gathering with other leaders of the G20 in Rio de Janeiro, where the discussion about the war in Russia has been one of the main points of contention.

The host, Brazilian President, attempted to prevent debates on the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts to focus on climate change and poverty. However, his rough and sometimes chaotic management of the meeting left many other leaders irritable.

On Monday, two underwater data cables were damaged in the Baltic Sea near the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, raising further concerns.

Governments in the region have repeatedly reported cyberattacks, misinformation, and incursions by Russian military aircraft, warning that they would be threatened if Putin succeeded in Ukraine. Swedish police stated they have begun investigating possible cable damage incidents. The German defense minister said, “Something is happening there.”

The origins of this week's developments can be traced back to last month's intervention by Pyongyang in the war, a move seen as a defiance of Washington's warnings.

It was this shift that persuaded Biden to allow strikes against Russia using ATACMS. Oleksandr Polishchuk, Ukraine's ambassador to India, said in an interview in New Delhi on Monday that the deployment of North Korean troops in the fighting has pushed the situation to “another level.”

According to local reports from Ukraine, the first attack carried out with these missiles hit an ammunition depot in Bryansk, a region in western Russia, which was later confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Russian reports indicate that they shot down five of the six missiles launched, with no casualties. The Ukrainian General Staff and Ministry of Defense declined to comment on which systems were used.

Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that later that day, Putin signed a decree expanding Russia's nuclear theory, under which Moscow may consider using atomic weapons. Under the revised guidelines, the Kremlin may use nuclear weapons in response to Kyiv's attacks on its territory using Western conventional weapons. Russia also sees attacks by non-nuclear states against it with the support of nuclear powers as a joint attack.

“This is typical of Putin - escalate first and negotiate later,” said Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets sovereign strategist at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, in a blog post. “Putin believes that at some point in the coming months, he will have to sit down and negotiate with Trump.”

Zelensky spoke at the European Parliament in Brussels, urging governments not to be “afraid to do more” to help Kyiv fend off Russia.

Biden has also provided Ukraine with $275 million in weapons.

With only two months until Trump's inauguration, hawks in Ukraine feel the pressure.

For them, it is clearly time to pump as much money into Zelensky's treasury as possible before Trump potentially cuts off the spigot, as Trump has referred to Zelensky as “the greatest salesman on earth” during his campaign.

The Associated Press reported on Tuesday: “U.S. officials said on Tuesday that the Pentagon will provide Ukraine with at least $275 million in new weapons, as the Biden administration rushes to help Kyiv counter Russia in the remaining two months before President Trump is elected.”

Shockingly, the same report noted: “This week, President Biden has repeatedly authorized Ukraine to launch longer-range missiles into Russian depth, followed by President Putin formally lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.”

The contents or details of the new aid package have not been disclosed, but it may include more missiles and equipment to support ATACMS.

The geopolitical analysis blog Moon of Alabama delves deeply into why the U.S. authorization of ATACMS strikes on Russian territory is so significant: Putin has correctly pointed out that any use of ATACMS requires the involvement of NATO (U.S./U.K.) assets to obtain target data and plan and program missile missions. Therefore, using any ATACMS on Russian soil constitutes an act of war by NATO against the Russian Federation. Russia will respond appropriately, but it is likely to occur far from the battlefield in Ukraine.

In fact, both Putin and Kremlin officials agree with this view, which is also why Putin signed the implementation of the new expansion of Russia's nuclear theory. According to the new expanded theory, if Western powers assist another country in launching a significant attack on Russian territory, those Western powers will also be held accountable. This could trigger a Russian nuclear launch. However, so far, Russian officials have made it clear that they do not expect nuclear war to occur.

Clearly, the Kremlin is patiently waiting for Trump to return to the White House, hoping this will prevent NATO from intervening in the war on behalf of Ukraine.

Article reposted from: Jin Shi Data