Tomorrow ETF options will be listed on Nasdaq. What does this mean? Once the Bitcoin ETF is approved, retail investors can enter the market to buy Bitcoin spot, and institutions, banks, and entities can also buy the ETF to hold the spot Bitcoin. This is equivalent to retail investors buying Bitcoin on the exchange.
With the opening of options, it can be seen as retail and institutional investors being able to trade Bitcoin contracts. Currently, the amount of capital held by institutions in spot Bitcoin has increased from over 50 billion to over 80 billion. The trading volume of spot is smaller than that of contracts, after all, contracts can leverage, and options can also leverage. The capital for contracts will be greater than that for spot. Once the options are opened, Wall Street will engage in options trading, and the capital of trading institutions leveraging will flow into the Bitcoin ETF, inevitably causing the price of Bitcoin to rise further. The volatility of Bitcoin will become larger, while it will also become smaller over time.
The struggle between institutions is more brutal than that between retail investors and retail investors, or between retail investors and market makers. It's like two ordinary people fighting; the impact only alerts the local police station. Even if it results in death (losses), the influence is limited. The opening of options is like armed-to-the-teeth professional armed police or military forces starting a direct confrontation. It's either you die or I die. When the fight starts, the impact and noise will be very large, but it will gradually decrease, eventually finding a balance point where everyone makes money and starts harvesting globally.
From a technical analysis perspective, the probability of Bitcoin going up in the near term is very high; it simply cannot go down. When it dips, it gets pulled back up, and the opening of options will further push prices higher.