Master Discusses Hot Topics:

First, let's talk about the Fear and Greed Index, which skyrocketed to 90 this week. It officially announces that the market has entered a state of extreme greed, as if everyone has become a character from the cryptocurrency world.

However, history tells us that, in my personal opinion, this might not necessarily be a good thing. In the past few years, there have been three instances where the index touched 90 or even higher: at the end of June 2019, from the end of October 2020 to early February 2021, and at the beginning of March 2024.

Looking back at historical performance, the peaks in 2019 and 2024 were like the climax of a bubble drama. They came quickly and left just as fast, with the market rapidly being brought back to reality from the extreme fantasy of (I will definitely get rich).

The only time the state of extreme greed lasted for more than ten weeks was during the bull market from October 2020 to the first quarter of 2021. I remember that the greed index even peaked at 95 during that time, with market sentiment reaching an explosive point. What happened in the end? It was only when the enthusiasm of all the retail investors was squeezed dry that the market finally slowed down.

So the question arises: is this a quick reversal or a long-term celebration at the peak of a bull market? History might be reminding us: in a volatile market that transitions from bear to bull, extreme greed is like a swollen face trying to look fat; it simply cannot be sustained.

However, once we enter the peak period of a bull market, it becomes an emotional marathon, until everyone is exhausted at the finish line.

Nevertheless, in the face of the ebb and flow of market emotions, we shouldn't take it too seriously. Perhaps in the end, we can only sigh: overthinking, the retail investors are forever retail investors, only this time it's a version with "self-added seasoning"!