Today's Picks
Fed's Collins: I don't think there is an urgent need to cut interest rates
US October "terrorist data" exceeded expectations
Israeli Prime Minister's private residence attacked again
Zelensky: Efforts to ensure diplomatic end to Russia-Ukraine conflict next year
Xi Jinping meets with US President Biden
Two departments: Cancel export tax rebates for aluminum, copper and other materials
CSRC issued (Guidelines for the Supervision of Listed Companies No. 10 - Market Value Management)
The 15th China Airshow signed contracts worth over 280 billion yuan
Market Review
Last Friday, the US dollar index fluctuated and fell during the Asian and European sessions, but the decline narrowed due to the US October retail sales data exceeding expectations, and finally closed down 0.18% at 106.67. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.4440%; the two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.3310%.
As the expectation of the Fed's rate cut further faded, spot gold fell, breaking the 2,560 mark at one point during the session, and finally closed down 0.06% at $2,562.81 per ounce, the largest weekly drop in more than three years. Spot silver finally closed down 0.66% at $30.25 per ounce.
As US President-elect Trump promised to resolve the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, international oil prices slumped. WTI crude oil finally closed down 2.43% at $66.90 per barrel, while Brent crude oil closed down 1.95% at $71.00 per barrel.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday. The momentum of the U.S. stock market's rise after the election faded, and the three major stock indexes all recorded declines last week. The Dow fell 0.70% to 43,444.99 points; the Nasdaq fell 2.24% to 18,680.12 points; and the S&P 500 fell 1.32% to 5,870.62 points. Among them, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both recorded their largest weekly declines since September, and the Dow recorded its largest weekly decline since late October. Large technology stocks generally fell, with the TAMAMA Technology Index falling 2.44%. In terms of individual stocks, Amazon (AMZN.O) fell more than 4%, Meta Platforms (META.O) fell more than 4%, and Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell more than 3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.82%, and most of the popular Chinese stocks rose, with JD.com (JD.O) rising nearly 5%.
Most of the major European stock indices closed lower, with Germany's DAX30 index closing down 0.27%; Britain's FTSE 100 index closing down 0.09%; and Europe's STOXX 50 index closing down 0.80%.
The Hang Seng Index opened higher after falling for five consecutive days, and maintained a volatile trend during the session, rising nearly 200 points in the morning. The gains were weakened in the afternoon, and the whole day showed a trend of shrinking volatility, close to a flat close. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index closed down 0.05% at 19426.34 points. The Hang Seng Technology Index closed up 0.22% at 4327.84 points, and the Hang Seng market turnover was HK$155.495 billion. On the market, the trend of technology stocks was differentiated, coal stocks strengthened in the afternoon, and Chinese brokerage stocks were weak throughout the day. In terms of individual stocks, NetEase (09999.HK) closed up 12.13% after the results, Bilibili (09626.HK) closed down 10.01% after the results, JD.com (09618.HK) closed down 1.85% after the results, Zijin Mining (02899.HK) closed up 2.08%, and China Merchants Securities (06099.HK) closed down 7.36%.
The three major A-share indexes fluctuated downward. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.91%. On the market, AI application concept stocks strengthened, and many stocks such as Zhongke Jincai and Online and Offline hit the daily limit; stocks with Chinese characters in their names were active, and China Publishing hit the daily limit. In addition, transportation services, education, coal and other sectors led the gains; defense and military industry, diversified finance, semiconductors, securities and other sectors led the declines. More than 4,300 stocks fell in the entire market, with a total transaction volume of more than 1.8 trillion yuan.
International News
1. Federal Reserve: ① Goolsbee: We will continue to consider rate cuts based on the September dot plot, and we should slow down when we are close to the neutral interest rate. ② Collins: We do not think there is an urgent need to cut interest rates, but we hope to maintain economic health. ③ Barkin: Since the Fed began to cut interest rates, demand data has been stronger.
2. The monthly rate of U.S. retail sales in October was 0.4%, and the increase in September was revised up from 0.4% to 0.8%. Traders cut their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut in 2025, reducing the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in December to about 50%.
3. The European Commission expects the eurozone's economic growth rate to be 0.8%, 1.3% and 1.6% from 2024 to 2026, and the inflation rate to be 2.4%, 2.1% and 1.9%. ECB Vice President Guindos: The ECB believes that the inflation outlook is positive, but the economic growth outlook is negative.
4. An ally of Trump proposed selling some of the Federal Reserve’s gold and buying 1 million Bitcoins.
5. Netanyahu’s private residence was attacked again. The suspects have been arrested, one of whom is said to be a senior military reserve officer.
6. US media reported that Israel wanted to use the ceasefire in Lebanon as a "gift" to Trump's inauguration, but Israeli officials denied it.
7. The Israeli army claimed to have killed the head of Hezbollah’s media relations office.
8. Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied that its permanent representative to the United Nations met with Musk.
9. Ukrainian President Zelensky: Work hard to ensure that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is ended through diplomatic means next year.
10. It is reported that the US government has allowed Ukraine to use US weapons to attack targets deep within Russian territory.
11. Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had their first phone call in nearly two years.
12. Russia has imposed temporary restrictions on the export of enriched uranium to the United States.
13. U.S. prosecutors said Bill Hwang, the protagonist of the century's margin call, should be sentenced to 21 years in prison.
14. US media: Nvidia’s new AI chip faces server overheating problems.
15. According to the Associated Press: Boeing issued layoff notices to more than 400 workers and began large-scale layoffs.
Domestic News
1. Xi Jinping met with US President Biden and pointed out that China is willing to continue to maintain dialogue, expand cooperation, and manage differences with the US government, and strive to achieve a smooth transition in China-US relations for the benefit of the people of both countries.
2. National Bureau of Statistics: The national economy maintained steady growth in October, with major economic indicators showing a significant rebound.
3. Local governments are replacing hidden debts in batches, and five places have begun to issue more than 200 billion yuan.
4. The two departments: Cancel the export tax rebate for aluminum, copper and other products, and reduce the export tax rebate rate for some refined oil, photovoltaics, batteries, etc. to 9%.
5. The Minister of Commerce met with the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan to exchange views on Japan's semiconductor export controls, etc.
6. Ministry of Commerce: From January to October, the country attracted RMB 693.21 billion in foreign investment.
7. The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued (Guidelines for the Supervision of Listed Companies No. 10 - Market Value Management) to promote the investment value of listed companies to reasonably reflect the quality of listed companies.
8. China Trust Association: The scale of trust assets reached 2.7 trillion yuan, achieving positive year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters.
3. In September and October, the month-on-month decline in commercial housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities generally narrowed.
10. The 15th China Airshow closed: the cumulative number of visitors was nearly 600,000, and contracts signed exceeded 280 billion yuan.
11. Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, the market size of domestically produced innovative drugs approved has reached 100 billion yuan.
12. The weight loss version of semaglutide is officially launched in China.
13. The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, John Lee, met with leaders of several ASEAN countries, hoping to support Hong Kong in joining RCEP as soon as possible.
14. 10jqka: Its subsidiary made implicit recommendations on individual stocks during the promotion of its live streaming business and was ordered to rectify the situation and suspend adding new customers for three months.
15. JD.com responded to the fire in Wuxi Logistics Park: "Mobile phones worth more than 1 billion yuan were burned" is a rumor, and the police have been notified.
16. my country's first ocean drilling ship "Dream" was officially commissioned.
Risk Warning
☆At 12:45, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will speak. This will be the first time Kazuo Ueda has had the opportunity to speak directly on monetary policy since Trump won the U.S. presidential election on November 5. The market will pay close attention to it, looking for clues on whether the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates next month.
☆To be determined, the G20 summit will be held until November 19.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data
