Currently, we are extremely uncomfortable in the past 2 trading days when BTC continuously traded at only 90k-91k, causing many traders during this period to not have much profit and continuously experience many emotions from profit to loss and loss to loss again and back to loss. From there, we are confused about whether BTC will break the 91k zone to continue the uptrend or adjust to the 86-87k zone. To answer your current questions, let's look back at BTC's accumulation cycles in the border zone similar to the current period to have a trading strategy in this extremely low-volatility price range.
First, let's look at the most recent uptrend cycle in February 2024, after BTC went from 44k to 52k, there was a period of re-accumulation of the upper border in 2 periods 23-2 and 25-2, after which BTC continued to go into an uptrend. During these 2 periods, BTC continuously swept both ends, then decreased to the lower border, and it was not until the session on February 26 that there was a session confirming that BTC officially continued to go into the second phase.
In the November 2023 uptrend cycle, after BTC moved from the 29k to 34k zone, a re-accumulation zone appeared and there were 2 upper boundary phases on November 6 and November 8. In the first phase of November 6, BTC always bulled up and then pushed down in the upper channel boundary zone and then returned to the lower boundary zone and at the second upper boundary accumulation phase (November 8), there was a confirmation phase that BTC continued to re-accumulate the channel at base number 2.
In the uptrend cycle of December 2023, when BTC went from the 38k - 44k zone, after the upper accumulation base, BTC did not create any bull or bear phases, but had an extremely strong breakout of the border zone, returning straight to the 40k price zone to start the re-accumulation process in the lower base zone.
So in the current cycle, BTC is in the re-accumulation phase and is creating a narrow fluctuation base in the 90k-91k price range. How will BTC move so that you can have a reasonable trading strategy? The answer is very simple. If BTC has a price movement pattern similar to the period of February 2024 or November 2024, it is highly likely that BTC will continue to uptrend in the near future (no time has been confirmed until there is a large volume candle accompanied by a strong price increase beyond the 91k price range). Specific movement pattern:
Continuously create liquidity sweep zones: at the price zone of 91k, it can go up to the 92k zone and then immediately return to the accumulation base zone or go deep down to the price zone of 88k and then immediately return to the accumulation base zone of 90k - 91k.
After the liquidity sweep zones, BTC can return to the lower border of the 86-87k zone or stay at the 90k-91k base, but after the zones return to the lower border or at the upper accumulation base, there must be a bar with large volume accompanied by a strong price increase breaking out of the 91k price zone, similar to the breakout phases on February 26, 2024 and November 8, 2023.
In case BTC does not move according to the above 2 patterns, but tonight there appears an extremely strong supply that pushes the price straight to the 84k zone, then the December 2023 scenario appears. At that time, we have to calculate whether the BTC scenarios can happen again and we absolutely do not catch the bottom at the break stage when BTC falls from this 87k price zone.
So we cannot predict at the present stage which scenario will happen, bull trap or re-accumulation from the 87k to the 91k zone. We have to see if the patterns of February 2024 or November 2023 will happen or not. If so, the probability of BTC falling to the 86-87k zone and then going up is quite high. Otherwise, if you do not see liquidity sweeps at this 90-91k base zone, it is very likely that the pattern of the 12-2023 phase will appear, so you should not buy at the stage when this pattern begins to form.
The bottom or top here is extremely difficult to predict, so I will temporarily stay out of this period to see what form and pattern BTC creates! And I hope today BTC will create a similar form to the period of November 2023, February 2024 so that you can buy spot BTC in the 86-87k area!
