Daily share
The short-term market of Bitcoin has once again surprised everyone, with a continuous rise without a callback, finally reaching 89940, pulling up 8000 USD within 24 hours, feeling like a frenzied surge. After several days of continuous rise without a callback, we finally welcomed a small acceleration in the upward trend, with the bears almost wiped out. Last night, while browsing Binance Square, many large holders faced liquidation on their short positions, one large holder held a short position above 71000, with a liquidation price around 82500, losing 100,000 USD. This shows that this surge has been very decisive.
In October last year, I personally experienced this as well. At that time, I had a short position at 28000 without a stop loss near 30000, ultimately holding on until about 35000, resulting in significant losses. Later, I learned my lesson: in contract trading, even if your liquidation price is far away, without a stop loss plan, it eventually leads to a dead end. Don't think that since my position is light and my liquidation price is far, I can hold my contract positions without worry. Last year, my short at 28000 had a liquidation price above 48000; was that safe? Absolutely not. Holding on until the end will definitely lead to liquidation. Fortunately, I decisively took the loss back then.
I digressed a bit, but I actually wanted to share from my own experience that having a stop loss in contract trading is a rule that must be followed; otherwise, you will eventually lose everything. Because the market itself has both predictable and unpredictable states, this explains that we should allow ourselves to occasionally be wrong in our direction. Misjudging the market is as normal as eating and drinking. Do not always demand that you never make mistakes. Judgments can allow for errors, but if the market trend changes and you refuse to correct it, not stopping your losses is completely irresponsible.
How should we view the upcoming market? The overall upward trend should still be ongoing, but since the short-term surge was too fast, I personally believe there should be a 1H slight callback within this week. The callback is to build momentum for the next push towards 100,000, so there’s no need to panic; just seize the opportunity.
BTC
Due to rapid market changes in the short term, this article can only make predictions based on the market conditions at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, this is merely for reference.
1H:
1H level, currently the rise at the 1H level here is likely still not over, and there should be one more 15-minute level rise, so it may continue to extend upwards, targeting around 90000. After another push, there should be a 1H level callback, and the next 1H level callback is likely to retrace to around 80000. After completing the 1H callback, it should push again to 95000, i.e., another 1H level rise. This is the expected possible trend, but of course, actual market conditions may vary greatly, needing to be observed as it progresses.
15M:
15-minute level, currently there is a 15-minute level callback happening here, focusing on the area around 84000~85200. If 84000 can hold, then there should be a 15-minute level rebound towards 90000. If it doesn't hold, consider a further callback towards 82000.
ETH
Ethereum is the same here, currently undergoing a 15-minute level callback, focusing on whether this callback can stabilize around 3180~3200. If stable, it can still make another 15-minute level rebound towards around 3450.
Trend direction
Weekly level: upward direction, currently moving towards a new weekly level increase, with an overall target of 100,000+.
Daily level: upward direction, looking to see if it will break through 100,000.
4-hour level: upward direction, focusing on 95000 above.
1-hour level: upward direction, expecting a 1H callback after this Wednesday; the current rise has not ended.
15-minute level: upward direction, if 84000 holds, there will be another 15-minute level rise towards 90,000.
