I am bullish on the U.S. stock market and suggest chasing the rise.
Put aside all previous analysis and return to the most basic facts.
There are many reasons for the adjustment in the previous two to three months, such as too much issuance of government bonds causing U.S. bond interest rates to soar, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the U.S. economy being too strong, and insufficient downward momentum for inflation. Let me summarize it in four points.
1. The concern about excessive issuance of government bonds improved significantly yesterday and is no longer a concern. 2. There is no chaos in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and other countries are not involved. Israel is still restrained, but the United States is obviously holding Israel back and does not want to escalate.
3. Growth is too strong and US stocks fall. The logic is that if growth is too strong, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more, so U.S. stocks fall. Now that it is clear that Powell will not raise interest rates again, this logic is gone. At this time, the economy is strong, which is good for U.S. stocks. 4. Inflation. Gasoline prices dropped too much in October. This was the largest monthly drop since the beginning of the year. It was a huge drop. In the CPI data on November 14, the contribution rate of energy was likely to be of the order of -0.3%. . The rental growth I'm seeing here will also come down. Energy and rent are the two decisive components.
In fact, the current macro background is still strong growth and falling inflation. This combination is good for US stocks, and the market has been confirming more clues. #WLD #unibot #sol #sbf #tia