The market is focused on the U.S. presidential election
Despite increased market volatility due to the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, the latest consumer confidence survey from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce shows that consumer confidence in stocks has reached an all-time high.
Historical data shows that since 1980, the three major U.S. stock indices have risen from election day to the end of the year in presidential election years, but don't celebrate too early, as in the short term, the three major indices all experienced declines in the week following election day, before recovering in about a month.
As voting is still ongoing, according to preliminary results from CNN's national exit polls, the vast majority of voters indicated that they had decided who to vote for well before election day. Two-thirds of voters expressed some confidence in the fairness and accuracy of this year's election. However, the vast majority of voters (about seven in ten) expressed concerns about potential violence resulting from the election.
Will Mt. Gox distribute to creditors again?
The former largest cryptocurrency exchange, Mt. Gox, transferred approximately 32,371 BTC (worth $2.2 billion) to an untagged wallet last night. This is the largest transfer by Mt. Gox in months, following a smaller transfer of 500 Bitcoins last week.
Due to the wallets not being tagged, it is currently unclear whether these transfers are part of future distributions to Mt. Gox creditors.
Nevertheless, past actions of this kind occurred before repayments were made through cryptocurrency exchanges such as Bitstamp and Kraken.
Mt. Gox still holds 44,878 Bitcoins, worth about $3.1 billion.
However, in mid-October, Mt. Gox again postponed the deadline for asset repayments to creditors from the original October 31, 2024, to October 31, 2025.
Bitcoin once surged above 70,000
Bitcoin once peaked at $70,577, and the daily inflow of Bitcoin into centralized exchanges is lower than on previous U.S. election days, which may indicate reduced selling pressure.
Since the beginning of October, short-term holders' Bitcoin holdings have increased by 343,000 BTC to 4.25 million BTC, also indicating renewed interest in this digital asset before the election.
Bitcoin is strong compared to Ethereum and other altcoins, with investors' preference for Bitcoin clearly surpassing other assets, especially in times of market uncertainty. Bitcoin's dominance has recently increased to over 60%.
Historically, Bitcoin has performed well in the months following U.S. presidential elections, with Bitcoin's performance post-election until the end of the year being:
In 2012, it rose by 22%
In 2016, it rose by 37%
In 2020, it rose by 98%
So far, Bitcoin's price pattern for 2024 is very similar to that of 2016, and if positive catalysts arise, a similar rebound may occur after the election.
