US election polling live updates:
Data from Polymarket shows:
Trump's probability of winning has risen to 62.7%, leading Harris.
On Kalshi, the winning rate is 57%, leading Harris's 43%.
On BackPack, the winning rate is 62.5%, leading Harris's 37.6%.
In addition, the betting amount on the US election on the platform is close to $3.2 billion.
The latest polls show: Harris's support rate in the US is 48.4%, while Trump's support rate is 47.2%.
In Pennsylvania, Harris and Trump are tied, each with 48.2% support.
In Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, Trump's lead is between 0.6% and 1.6%.
In Wisconsin and Michigan, Harris leads by 1.1% to 1.6%.
The 60th presidential election voting in the US officially begins: At local time on November 5, the small town of Dixville Notch in New Hampshire announces the voting results of 6 registered voters, with Harris and Trump tied at 3:3. This moment marks the official start of the US election. Based on previous election trends and polling results, 7 key swing states with 93 electoral votes will decide the outcome: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The US election employs a unique electoral college system, consisting of 538 representatives from 50 states and Washington D.C. The election is determined by the 'electoral college and winner-takes-all system' rather than a simple popular vote. Therefore, candidates can win by securing key state votes even if they are at a disadvantage in national polls and popular votes. The sum of electoral votes from each state is the total number of votes that candidate receives, with more than half of the total electoral votes (270) needed for victory.
According to current data statistics, Harris has basically locked in 226 electoral votes, while Trump is temporarily trailing with 219 votes.
Trump comes out to speak: issues another call to vote. He also states that if he were president, he would end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Claims that November 5, 2024, will be America's 'Day of Liberation,' and on the first day, he will launch the largest illegal immigrant deportation plan in American history.
Musk: Trump will win in the coastal state with a margin of about 500,000 votes.
The voting results for swing states in the US election will be announced no later than around noon on November 6.
Cryptocurrency news:
Microsoft may face shareholder lawsuit risks if it ignores the rise in Bitcoin prices: Microsoft has a fiduciary duty to act in ways that align with shareholders' economic interests, and resisting Bitcoin could contradict those interests.
Goldman Sachs: Firmly believes the Federal Reserve will still lower interest rates twice this year and cut four times in the first half of next year.
The US warns: Russia escalates election interference! National Guard on standby to prevent internal unrest.
On the eve of the election, the US Bitcoin ETF recorded the second-largest daily outflow, with a net outflow of $5.4111 million on November 4, while only BlackRock saw an inflow of $38.4 million. The spot Ethereum ETF experienced a net outflow of $63.23 million yesterday. Last week, BlackRock invested $2 billion to purchase BTC.
Bitcoin against BlackRock's US Treasury ETF sets a new historical high.
Deutsche Telekom launches a pilot for Bitcoin mining, utilizing surplus renewable energy to stabilize the grid.
Some hot trends to watch in November include: Memes, AI, BRC-20, and RWA.
CZ responds to the controversy over listing fees, stating that the industry should reduce such attacks, and Bitcoin has never paid any listing fees. CZ responds with a post, thanking Sun Yuchen for the support, recognizing it comes from someone operating two competing exchanges.
Foreign media: The CZ plea agreement does not include a lifetime ban from managing cryptocurrency exchanges.
The UK pension fund has for the first time included Bitcoin in its balance sheet.
10X Research: recommends going long on Bitcoin and shorting SOL to cope with election volatility. If Harris wins, the possibility of approving alternative ETFs may decrease, leading to a 15% drop in SOL, while BTC may only drop 9%. If Trump wins, it could result in SOL, BTC, and ETH all rising by about 5%. Another reason to short SL is that Solana's daily network transaction fees have decreased from a record $5 million on October 24 to $2.5 million.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network has liquidated $210 million, with $140 million from long positions, and the cryptocurrency market cap has fallen to $2.357 trillion.
Friendly reminder:
Due to the impact of the US election and daylight saving time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 03:00 Beijing time on November 8 (Friday).
