As the U.S. elections approach, the focus of the cryptocurrency market is gradually shifting towards the potential impact of the election results. QCP Capital noted that the market is exhibiting cautious sentiment ahead of the election results, primarily reflected in the decline of leveraged perpetual contract positions and reduced price volatility. However, data from the options market shows that some investors are preparing for a possible breakthrough market, particularly the large purchases of options expiring at the end of November with a strike price of $75,000, indicating the market's optimistic expectations for future prices.
Bernstein's prediction is more specific. According to their report, regardless of the outcome of the election, there remains a possibility that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. If Trump wins, Bitcoin may surge to between $80,000 and $90,000 before the inauguration on January 20, 2025; if Harris wins, the market may see some pullback, but Bitcoin is still expected to maintain a range around $50,000, which is higher than the previous estimate of $30,000 to $40,000. Historically, Bitcoin has performed exceptionally well after several U.S. elections. Whether in the 2012, 2016, or 2020 elections, Bitcoin's price reached a peak within a year, which seems to have formed a trend. If this trend continues, according to CoinDesk's calculations, Bitcoin's price could reach approximately $103,500 in 2025. The combination of historical patterns and current market sentiment instills confidence in the future; perhaps this election will become a catalyst for a new bull market for Bitcoin.
BN founder Zhao Changpeng's latest itinerary in the Middle East shows his high regard for investment opportunities in the region. From Dubai to Bahrain, Zhao Changpeng is stepping toward the forefront of the Middle Eastern blockchain market. While Bahrain may not shine as brightly as Dubai in the public eye, its open attitude toward cryptocurrencies and support for innovative enterprises is equally commendable. The crypto asset service provider and banking licenses obtained by BN in Bahrain have undoubtedly established a direct bridge between fiat and cryptocurrencies, marking a significant layout for BN in the Gulf region.
The Middle East has demonstrated strong investment potential in the fields of blockchain, AI, and biotechnology. Zhao Changpeng's proactive investments not only lay out a blockchain strategy but also involve forward-looking explorations of future technological trends. Especially in AI and biotechnology, BN's cross-industry layout showcases the diversified investment value of the Middle Eastern market. As Middle Eastern countries gradually relax their policies related to cryptocurrencies, this provides unprecedented development space for BN and other crypto enterprises. Furthermore, Zhao Changpeng has provided a rational analysis of the development of RWAs in Hong Kong. He pointed out that the low volatility of RWAs and the lack of liquidity in the secondary market make it difficult to boost trading volume in the short term. This insight reflects his sharp perception of market trends, indicating that BN may look for more innovative investment opportunities, bringing more liquidity to the market. Overall, Zhao Changpeng's Middle Eastern layout is not only an expansion of the crypto industry but also demonstrates his firm determination to seize technological frontiers globally.
Recent news indicates that the actions of the Michigan state pension fund and the UK pension fund demonstrate institutions' growing attention to and trust in crypto assets. The Michigan state pension fund not only purchased Bitcoin ETFs but also increased its position in Ethereum ETFs by $10 million, which is larger compared to the $7 million for Bitcoin ETFs, indicating that Ethereum is no longer seen merely as a "supplement to Bitcoin" but as an important asset with potential value in the eyes of institutions.
UK pension funds have chosen a more direct investment approach, allocating 3% of their assets directly to Bitcoin, differing from general indirect investment methods like ETFs. This investment by the UK pension fund underwent extensive discussions and strict ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) considerations, reflecting the fund's recognition of the security, transparency, and sustainability of crypto assets. At the same time, Cartwright has adopted a model where five independent institutions jointly manage the private keys, further ensuring asset security, and plans to launch a Bitcoin employee benefits program to provide more application scenarios for enterprises and staff involving crypto assets. From the market's response, the influx of institutional funds undoubtedly brings long-term growth momentum to the crypto market, especially the entry of pension funds will have a profound impact on the recognition and positioning of cryptocurrencies. With the continuous improvement in risk control, legal compliance, and technological security, more and more institutions may consider crypto assets as part of their investment portfolios. This trend may drive the long-term value growth of major crypto assets like Ethereum and Bitcoin, and the mainstreaming process of the crypto market will gradually accelerate.
The US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of 25,700 units yesterday, valued at $63.2 million.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 7,869 units yesterday, valued at $541 million.
BTC: Bitcoin's spinning top close yesterday brought a glimmer of hope to the market, indicating that the forces of bulls and bears have temporarily reached a balance, laying the groundwork for a potential rebound. Although the market has experienced a certain degree of correction recently, this adjustment actually provides more space for subsequent increases. Bullish momentum still exists, and indicators like KDJ show that market sentiment is already at a low level; as long as the support level holds, the potential for a subsequent rebound remains substantial. The daily moving average system also indicates that prices are generally maintained above important moving averages, laying a good foundation for sustained rebounds.
In summary, this round of adjustment is actually a process of accumulating strength. As long as the support level around 67,000 remains solid, Bitcoin's upward momentum will continue. Even if short-term rebounds encounter resistance, breaking through is only a matter of time, and the market is still expected to climb upward. For long-term holders, this is a very good opportunity, and future trends remain worth looking forward to.
ETH: Ethereum closed a small bearish candle yesterday, with multiple indicators suggesting a possible oversold rebound in the short term; patience is key.
Altcoins: The recent weakness of Bitcoin has led to an increase in market risk-averse sentiment, and capital flows have begun to become cautious. This has made the performance of altcoins appear somewhat sluggish. It is worth noting that Bitcoin's market capitalization share in the entire cryptocurrency market continues to rise, reaching a new high in this bull market. This phenomenon reminds us that the outbreak of altcoins is not something that will happen in the short term; to welcome a new wave of uptrend, we still need to wait for Bitcoin to regain strength and initiate the next upward trend.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 70 (Greed)#美国大选后涨或跌？
