$BTC
About the Election:
Personally, I believe that Trump's chances of being elected are high. The reasons are as follows:
1. Recently, you must have seen various news about how Harris has been leading in early voting and polling data ahead of Trump, and how stocks of companies under Trump's name have been declining. However, from past data, Trump's early vote counts have always been quite poor, or the polling data has not been satisfactory. This year, 2024, happens to be the best year for Trump's polling data and early voting.
2. Trump belongs to the Republican camp, and early voters only account for about 37% of the Republican population, while the elite class represented by the Democratic party accounts for about 70%. This means that the current presented data is in a situation where Harris has 7 and Trump has 3, while the real key event lies in the on-site voting situation of Republican members on the election day, November 6, Beijing time.
Personally, I lean towards Trump having a greater chance of winning, of course, everything will depend on the actual results.
Trump's election would be positive for the cryptocurrency market, gold, US stocks, and the A-share chip sector. The underlying logic is that Trump's economic policy involves drastically lowering interest rates and increasing tariffs.
Harris's election would be a short-term negative for the cryptocurrency market, as too many people are betting on Trump's victory, and a large amount of gold and cryptocurrency bulls would be suppressed, leading to high risk-averse sentiment and thus creating selling pressure.
The long-term outlook for Bitcoin is bullish, breaking new highs.
Technical Analysis: The extension of the fourth wave in the five-wave structure on the daily chart has already touched the first wave in the extension of the five-wave structure, and the pattern is still in place, with a final upward extension of the last wave expected, which will be a new high.
From the four-hour level, the bottom MACD bearish bars have noticeably shortened, and it has reached the critical point where MACD bearish bars could turn into bullish bars, indicating that bullish sentiment is still present.
The best entry point in the four-hour timeframe is at 66750. I personally have a long position at 69700, and I will add to my position at 66750, targeting a new high.
The lifeline for the long position is 65222.
That's all for now, I have to go see a doctor, don’t worry!