Crypto Insider, Butchering the Ox 11/4
I. Economic Data Analysis:
(1) On November 8, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose to 98.9% (3 days left in the meeting)
(2) Geopolitics: The media quoted Israeli intelligence as saying that Iran is preparing to launch a large-scale retaliatory action against Israel with the help of armed forces in Iraq, and the time may be before the US election day.
(3) Today, Trump's probability of winning is 57.1% (up 1.1%), and Harris's probability of winning is 43.1%. (Down 0.8%)
(4) ETF dynamics: Last week, ETFs had a net inflow of 2.22 billion U.S. dollars, and a net outflow of 54.94 million U.S. dollars on Friday, with negative inflows on the first day, and BlackRock had 0 inflows (pay attention to the risk of retracement)
(5) US-Japan exchange rate: 151.8
(6) Non-farm data: The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States in October recorded 12,000, the smallest increase since December 2020. (Favorable rate cut probability)
(7) The results of the US election will be announced on the 6th (9 am on the 6th in Pennsylvania). According to Cointelegraph, JPMorgan Chase estimates that Trump's chances of winning are 60-70%, and predicts that if the Republicans win the election, the US dollar will rise by 5%, and if Congress is divided, the US dollar will rise by 1.5-2%.
2. On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment is moderate 53 (down 4 from yesterday)
(2) Mining data analysis: 772eh/s, handling fee 4.8 gas:2 S19 shutdown coin price: 59613-65918U
(3) BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.0108% (monthly rate 0.9%)
(4) Potential incremental funds: FTX expects to distribute US$16 billion in funds to creditors in Q4 (10-30% will flow back to the crypto circle, estimated to be 1.6-4.8 billion U)
Potential negatives in the near future
1. Uncertainty in the US election
Potential positives in the near future
1. FTX funds enter the market
2. Trump is elected
3. 25 basis point interest rate cut in November
The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice!
Investment is risky, please be cautious when entering the market!
