History is always surprisingly similar, and there is a special connection between Bitcoin and the U.S. elections!
2012 U.S. Election: Bitcoin plummeted 75% 80 days before the election. After the election, it began a crazy surge!
2016 U.S. Election: Three months before the election, Bitcoin's price fell from about $750 to a low of $500, a decline of over 30%. It also started a rebound bull market.
2020 U.S. Election: In the two months prior, Bitcoin dropped about 16%, from $12,000 to around $10,000, and then entered a phase of consolidation until a rebound occurred at a critical moment before the election. By May 2021, it shot up to $60,000!
2024 U.S. Election: Three months before the election, a plunge on August 5th to $49,000, and a new round of highs began on October 7th.
Conclusion: By looking at history, we can understand the rise and fall! In hindsight, what seems inevitable was always inconspicuous at the time.
The election results will be out the day after tomorrow.
If Trump wins, the crypto market may jump in the short term; if Harris wins, the crypto market may fall in the short term, both could influence the market direction for two months. In the long run, if Trump wins, BTC could rise to $90,000 - $100,000, and after a shake at $70,000 - $90,000, it may reach new highs; if Harris wins, it might hover at $50,000 - $70,000 before a slow bull market exceeds $100,000, due to differing inflation expectations of the two parties. The interest groups behind Harris will flood the market, which is good for the crypto space. Currently, Polymarket shows Trump's approval at 58%, Harris at 42%, but in polls, Harris is slightly ahead, so the result is uncertain. Now is the best time to hold onto Bitcoin. Institutions are buying aggressively, and demand exceeds supply; on-chain data indicates a continuation of the bull market trend. There might be a slight downturn in the short term due to the reduced likelihood of Trump winning, but the medium to long-term outlook remains positive.