November 4, 2024

According to the polling data released by the big data agency AtlasIntel, Trump is leading Harris in seven swing states, with significant advantages in Arizona and Nevada. However, the competition in key states like Pennsylvania and Michigan remains very fierce, and overall, Trump's previous lead is no longer present. It now depends on the situation in the last few swing states; until the last moment, it's unclear who will win.

The market conditions in the past few days reflect this situation. Yesterday, the index faced extreme pressure at the 67-68000 support range, and fortunately, it did not break through; otherwise, the situation would be even worse. It is said that Bitcoin will be tied to whether Trump is elected. In the short term, there may be some impact, but I think the final result is uncertain. Yesterday tested Bitcoin's support, and in my view, the risk of a short-term breakdown has actually decreased, turning bullish.

It is noteworthy that last night's decline was accompanied by some panic selling, especially the drop in altcoins, which generally followed Bitcoin. Ethereum's relative rebound has already erased a 10-point range, indicating that market confidence is still quite insufficient. In this situation, if another black swan event occurs, a 30% drop in the index is quite easy. Therefore, at this position, I think it's better to wait and see; after stabilizing, consider increasing positions, preferably after the election.

At this stage, there is actually no need for too much operation; the core is to hold on. For example, when Ethereum rose to 2700 a few days ago, I didn't rush to make a move because I was concerned the market would shoot up directly, especially since there are only two months left. Of course, if there are better prices in the next two months, don't hesitate to get in. Bear markets often come with various FUD noises, and Ethereum has faced FUD before. I clearly remember the last round when it dropped below 100, everyone thought it was the end, but it eventually rose to 4000. This is the opportunity that bear markets provide.

Thank you for your attention and likes.