The global attention on the US election, since the Cold War, may not have been as intense as this year. Because of the prominent personality of Trump (the King of Understanding) making a comeback after previously defeating Hillary to become the 58th President of the US. This time, can Trump defeat his female opponent Harris (Haha) for a second time? Or will Harris defeat Trump and enter the White House, becoming the first female president in US history?
Trump's unique governing style is well known to the world. Focused on America, prioritizing America everywhere, with radical policies. Based on trade principles but unpredictable, disregarding rules. To use a Chinese internet meme, he is like 'this American straight guy doesn't follow the script.' Will the coincidence of the 58th US history become a certainty for the 60th?
A French trader bet $30 million on Trump, making headlines on the front page of the Wall Street Journal. If he wins, he could earn $80 million, while losing could lead to working in a club. This certainly affects voter sentiment. Additionally, Musk, who has 200 million followers on platform X, strongly supports Trump; his daily million-dollar lottery campaign for votes violates Pennsylvania's lottery and consumer protection laws and faces litigation. In the final moments, Trump pulled out two trump cards ('energy tax cuts' halving household energy taxes and 'developing housing' constructing affordable housing). Trump's team is great at creating momentum and marketing, living up to their business origins. All this said, it is still hard to say that 'King of Understanding' has won for sure!
Harris performed poorly in her recent interview (CNN), especially with a distinctly Chinese flavor (playing Tai Chi, dodging the issue), which could significantly affect her chances of being elected. Coincidentally, Biden's gaffe about 'voters for Trump are trash...' and Clinton saying 'the economy was better under Trump, but I...' shows that Harris, though calm and approachable, lacks seriousness and personal charm compared to Trump, lacking the so-called 'official dignity' that Chinese people refer to. If the two were campaigning on Chinese soil, it can be said for sure that 'Sister Haha' would have no chance, merely serving as a sparring partner.
In addition to having female voters, abortion rights, and legal transgender issues as three trump cards, the Democratic Party has another ace up its sleeve: illegal immigrants. The Democratic Party transfers a large number of illegal immigrants to some swing states, then enacts laws allowing batches of eligible illegal immigrants to have legal status (obtain US green cards). This is also one of the reasons why Musk supports Trump in this election. Musk stated at a Republican gathering that he previously did not participate in politics, but this time supports the Republicans because he does not want to see swing states become like California, leading to a future of one-party rule in the US.
However, just obtaining a 'green card' without acquiring US citizenship does not make one a US citizen, and thus there is still no voting rights. Since illegal immigrants also do not have voting rights after obtaining green cards, the curious public can't help but ask, what is the Democratic Party's goal in transferring a large number of illegal immigrants to some swing states? Do illegal immigrants hope the Democratic Party continues to govern? Of course, they do, because under Democratic governance, they might obtain 'green cards' and even become US citizens. Conversely, if Trump takes office, they are likely to be deported. These people very much hope the Democratic Party continues to govern, but they also have no voting rights, so what can they do?
The answer is that even though you do not have voting rights, you can take risks to vote, and there is a great chance it won't be discovered (to protect voters, the US has set up a way to 'vote anonymously').
Key point: How can one vote without US citizenship? For example, on election day, if one forgets to bring identification or if their ID is damaged and not yet replaced, they can fill out a 'Citizenship Affidavit' declaring themselves a US citizen. In simple terms, you just make a vow. Of course, making a vow has its costs; if discovered, you could go to jail. You might face up to 15 years in prison and deportation.
Normally, no one would take such a great risk to 'vow.' But think about it, for some illegal immigrants, they already have nothing; even if they go to jail, it's still in the US, which is better than being deported to their home country, right? For example, for illegal immigrants from Ukraine, being jailed in the US is still better than being sent back home.
Now everyone understands why the Democratic Party wants to transfer a large number of illegal immigrants to swing states. In 2020, Trump lost to Biden in the election, and he still does not admit his failure, and the reason lies here.
In summary, the 2024 US election is intensely competitive, with multiple polls showing the two candidates have similar support. As of October 31, in seven swing states, Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin of one percentage point, but 10% of voters may change their minds before the election. This crucial minority is torn between needing a calm president or a wildly pro-American billionaire president.
Onlookers enjoy the spectacle without concern, and I will take a guess as well.
The Republican Party opposes globalization and is responsible to America; I choose the King of Understanding.
The Democratic Party supports globalization and is responsible to China; I choose haha.
From the perspective of friendliness to the crypto industry, I hope Trump wins.
From a geopolitical perspective on world order, I hope Harris wins.
"The ninth fire movement and the middle woman in power" will soon verify whether this 'I Ching hexagram - Ninth Purple Fire Movement' holds true on the other side of the earth, haha~
Who do you think will be elected? Please write your answer in the comments!