Last night's non-farm payroll data shocked the market, with the reported employment figure being only about one-tenth of expectations. Even more bizarrely, from U.S. stocks to BTC, risk assets did not follow the pattern of 'employment collapse => economic recession => risk asset decline,' but instead rose sharply. Thus, it had to be forcibly explained as 'employment collapse => the Fed must cut interest rates => risk asset rise.'
However, before the non-farm data was released, the market had already priced in over a 90% probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25bp in November. Such poor data only added another 10%, making it a certainty of rate cuts. How could the risk of recession be erased?
This naturally also led BTC to take a roller coaster ride, surging from 70k to nearly 71.5k at 20:30, then suddenly plummeting at 22:30, diving sharply from above 71k down to 69k.
Last night's surge and pullback directly led to a sharp decline in positions across the three major derivatives exchanges: Binance, OK, and Bybit; this indicates that smart funds from both sides significantly exited last night to avoid the upcoming volatility, so everyone might consider reducing positions moving forward.
This weekend may be different from usual; with the election day approaching, the control is becoming more frequent, and everyone should pay attention to the volatility.
The panic from the news has triggered some whales to sell off large amounts, and the situation is becoming increasingly unstable. Currently, it seems that no matter who the White House leader is, the market is likely to flash crash. Of course, these are just some reflections of the current market; the outcome will still be determined by time. What we need to do is to firmly protect our principal and seize opportunities for a decisive win.
From a technical perspective on Bitcoin at the daily level, the resistance above is very strong; three consecutive bearish candles have formed a descending box, and this 69700 position is still at the upper edge of the box. According to the trend, there is a high probability of a bearish engulfing pattern next.
So pay attention to the gradual decline these days, but it is advised not to chase too aggressively; the technical aspects are insignificant in front of the news, and one must recognize the big trend!
Every time there is a drop, I advise you not to cut your losses casually. Never do the opposite of what you should; when there is a big rise, we sell slowly.
When the market drops, we bravely buy bleeding chips. Why do the most people lose money in a bull market?
In the current environment, the market is in the bottom region, but it may not be the lowest point. We can't buy at the lowest point, and it doesn't matter much if we do; what you can actually consume is what is real for you. Can one person finish a whole pot of rice?
Being at the bottom does not mean a reversal will happen immediately; most still cannot. How much confidence do you have in your assets? What will you do if the bottom doesn't rise for a long time? As you watch others' coins soar, can you resist the temptation? Will certain information stir your heart?
In trading spot for the long term, my best strategy is to hold stable mainstream coins. For example, mainstream coins really haven’t retraced much during the pullback, plus leading assets, and take small positions in some early-stage development assets without making any waves.
