Daily share

Our original expectation was that after Bitcoin's first 1H level rebound reached 72500, a second 1H level correction would occur, retracing to around 70000 or 69500. Then, as the first 1H rebound touched 73620, very close to the historical high, I adjusted the expectation for the second 1H correction to the range of 70000~71000.

Following a dip in the early morning, Bitcoin failed to hold 70000 and dropped to around 68830. It is evident that Bitcoin has broken below 69500, with short-term market structure changes and increased risks of further weakening. A key position below is 68500; if it breaks this position, it indicates a high probability of turning into a 4H level correction or daily level correction.

If it holds above this position, there is still a chance to continue breaking through 73777. Why has the short-term market become a bit uncertain? This is because the US election is approaching, and market volatility has become intense. Originally, the US election was not closely related to the cryptocurrency sector, but Trump previously declared high-profile that if he is elected president, he would support cryptocurrency trading, which would attract more funds into the cryptocurrency sector, thus creating expectations for Bitcoin's short-term volatility.

In the early morning, the latest polls showed that Harris's support was slightly above Trump by 1%, and subsequently Bitcoin began to decline further. It should be noted that most of the time, the market will move as it is supposed to. This 1H level correction of Bitcoin is unrelated to news; if the market is meant to have a 1H correction, it will eventually manifest. However, the strength of the decline does have some relation to news; news promotes the strength of the decline but does not change the direction. The causal relationship cannot be reversed.

Interestingly, the US election has not yet concluded, and the results will be announced on November 5. Before that, 10% of voters may change their minds, so Trump still has a chance of winning.

This means that if in the next few days Bitcoin does not further drop below 68500 and coincidentally encounters Trump leading Harris in votes, Bitcoin may directly experience a V-shaped reversal. It can be confirmed that after the 1H level correction is completed here, there will be a 1H level rebound. The uncertainty lies in whether the strength of the rebound will vary due to news. If favorable news for Trump comes in the next few days, the market may again reverse above 73777. If unfavorable news for Trump arises again, the rebound may just be a weak one, followed by further decline.

BTC medium to long-term

Weekly:

At the weekly level, since Bitcoin has recently broken through 70000, we are looking at another wave of weekly level increases, with targets likely reaching just above 100000. However, this does not mean Bitcoin will immediately surge above 100000; there will still be a stronger correction in between, or some complex oscillations. The overall trend, however, continues to look bullish, with expectations lasting until around May or June next year.

Daily level:

At the daily level, it is currently in a daily level increase that started from 49000, and this daily increase is just 160 dollars away from breaking the historical high. Currently, it continues to be observed; there is still a chance for a short-term surge to complete this daily level increase.

If the daily level increase breaks through 73777, but the breaking strength is not strong, then it is likely to experience a daily level correction. Below, pay attention to 65000, and if it breaks, watch for around 60000. After that, a third daily level increase is expected, targeting above 90000 or over 100000.

It can be imagined that the trend is more complex, and the difficulty of operation is also quite high.

4H:

4H level, let's see how to proceed here. If the short-term can hold above 68500, there will be another chance to push up to 74000 to complete the 4H level rebound or the daily level rebound.

If the short-term breaks below 68500, then the structure here may change to 58946~73620, which would be a complete 4H level rebound. The recent surge is an extension of the previous 4H rebound. In that case, it would retrace at the 4H level back to above 65000, forming a third buy.

The specific situation can be observed further, one is where the current 1H level decline ends, and the other is the strength of the 1H level rebound in the next two to three days.

BTC short-term

Because the market changes rapidly in the short term, this article can only provide a forecast based on the market changes at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market; this is merely for reference.

1H:

1H level, currently still in a 1H level correction that started from 73620. The strength of this correction has indeed exceeded my expectations, which was unexpected. Originally, I hoped the 1H correction would retrace to the 70000~71000 range, but it unexpectedly broke below 70000 down to 68830, indicating that this market is still quite difficult to predict. You can predict that it will move down from above 73000, but you cannot accurately predict where it will eventually drop to start rebounding.

Currently, there is a central area at the 1H level below. If the market can hold above 68500, there should be a 1H level rebound in the next day or two. The strength of this 1H rebound can vary; if there is favorable news like Trump, it might directly reverse and break through 73777. Right now, it's a door painting, but past trends tell us that sometimes it is also accompanied by another reverse after painting the door. If there is no favorable news, the 1H rebound might not reach 73620, possibly just a little above 72000 or a second sell around 71000, followed by further decline.

Additionally, if the current 1H level decline cannot hold above 68500, then the probability of the next 1H level rebound breaking through 73620 is very low. Even if there are favorable news stimuli, it is estimated that it will be difficult to go too high.

15M:

At the 15-minute level, it is still in the 1H level decline. In the short term, it might see a 15-minute level rebound. A stronger rebound could reach the 70500~71000 range, while a weaker one might just be around 70200. Observe around six or seven in the evening; after the rebound, there will be another 15-minute level correction back to around 68800. If it can stabilize above 68500, there will be another 1H level rebound.

ETH

Ethereum's correction here has also greatly exceeded expectations. Even if there is favorable news, it may not directly V-reverse and break through 2700. From an optimistic perspective, I still hope Ethereum can break above 2800 again. So if Ethereum can stabilize at 2450 in the short term, there is hope to build a central area and then surge again. If it cannot stabilize, it will continue heading towards around 2300.

Ethereum 15-minute level, there should be a chance to see a 15-minute level rebound here, with attention to 2550 above. After the rebound, there will also be a 15-minute level decline, checking whether 2450 can hold.

Trend direction

Weekly level: Direction up, currently in a new weekly level increase, overall target looks at over 100000.

Daily level: Direction up, possibly reaching around 75000.

At the 4-hour level: Direction up, normally it should be able to go to 74000 again. If it breaks below 68500, that would be uncertain.

1-hour level: Direction down, the 1H level exceeded expectations around 68800, short-term focus on 68500 support. If it holds, look for a 1H rebound.

15-minute level: Direction down, expecting a 15-minute level rebound after which there will be another 15-minute level decline.