1. Polymarket has bet over $2.7 billion on election outcomes, with Trump’s approval rating at 67%, exceeding Harris by 34 percentage points, but Harris's chances of winning have decreased to 33%.
2. Breaking news: China has expanded its exploration of outer space; a Chinese spacecraft carrying three astronauts docked with the Tiangong space station. After being excluded from the International Space Station, China has built its own space station.
3. Ukraine and #俄罗斯 are now in the early stages of negotiations to stop airstrikes on each other's energy facilities.
4. UBS's profit in the third quarter reached $1.4 billion, but it was below expectations.
5. Americans spend an average of $1,014 during holidays in #万圣节 , up from $923 in 2023; it seems Americans are still willing to spend! (Figure 1)
6. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose by 0.2%, with some of the largest gains among major stocks including: GOOG-GOOGL-MSFT, etc. Recent economic data shows mixed results for major European economies.
France's GDP grew by 0.4% in the third quarter #GDP , exceeding expectations and rebounding from the previous quarter; Germany also grew by 0.2% (economic recession?), while Italy's economy stagnated after a slight increase previously.
The consumer confidence index in the eurozone and individual countries like Germany reflects that although people are still worried about inflation pressures, consumer confidence has improved, and the eurozone's service sector remains resilient.
Stable service sentiment data exceeded market expectations, and market participants are closely watching the upcoming U.S. economic reports, including the ADP employment data and third quarter GDP forecast to provide insights into potential policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve amid election uncertainty affecting global investor behavior.
7. A concerned issue for everyone: this time not talking about the Qing Dynasty, but rather China, which had dominated for hundreds of years, leading Europe in the economy and other fields. However, starting from the first decade of the 19th century, it experienced a sharp decline, followed by the rise of the United States, which has become a world superpower in the past 150 years.
A single indicator of wealth and power for each country is roughly equivalent to the average value of 18 strength indicators, which are the eight determinants of wealth and power.
a. Education
b. Competitiveness
c. Innovation and technology
d. Economic output
e. World trade share
f. Military strength
g. Financial center strength
h. Reserve currency status
From the chart, starting around 1950, the U.S. shows a downward trend while China shows an upward trend (Figure 2).
8. According to a report by the China Construction News supported by the Ministry of Housing, Minister Ni Hong of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development met with representatives from real estate, construction, and other industries on Monday. Ni Hong stated that China will strengthen the momentum of the real estate market to prevent a decline; however, in reality, unless people's incomes can be improved, market recovery is not so easy and may take several years.
9. Following the previous point, Chinese stocks experienced the largest weekly capital outflow in nine years (the largest since the bear market in 2015), with an outflow of approximately $6 billion due to disappointment following the announcement of stimulus policies, leading to a gradual decline in market optimism (Figure 3).
10. Yesterday, Bitcoin #BTC☀ saw ETF inflows of $827 million. In the long term, the market is filled with positive and greedy sentiments, but we still need to remain cautious. With various data announcements this week (including policies and U.S. corporate earnings), there is still a short-term need for a pullback at the macro level. Moreover, on-chain data shows that the fear and greed index reached 77, with profit supply reaching 99; whenever it approaches 100, $BTC often undergoes a correction. According to the heat clearing chart, a large number of long positions accumulated at around 70-71K (Figures 4 and 5).
