1. Trump is significantly stronger than Harris in the 2024 odds, with 6 days left until the election (Figure 1)
2. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that nuclear forces must be prepared
3. The Qing Dynasty detained a Korean on charges of espionage, which means that the expanded anti-espionage law has made such an arrest for the first time. According to reports, the Korean was accused of leaking semiconductor information.
4. China's factory production may have shrunk for a sixth consecutive month in October, and economists expect the PMI to hover below the growth threshold of 49.9 despite the government's new stimulus measures to revive the world's second-largest economy.
Analysts expect the stimulus effect to be felt in the fourth quarter, but persistent deflationary pressures and weak loan demand are raising red flags.
Some forecasts suggest that the economy will resume expansion slightly, but the recovery remains uncertain (it can be called a stabilization plan rather than a stimulus plan, which will help support the finances of local governments and other institutions and may indirectly increase spending, but it will not lead to a significant increase in investment or consumption)
5. According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit increased by nearly 15% in September to the highest level since March 2022 as companies competed to prevent potential dock workers' strikes, and consumer goods imports hit a more than two-year high, reflecting retailers' preparations for the holiday shopping season.
Capital goods inbound shipments rise, and while the third quarter GDP forecast will be revised downward, the fourth quarter GDP forecast should rise as imports fall sharply in the coming months (Figure 2)
6. The US stock bubble is quite serious. The technology, media and telecommunications industries account for 42% of the S&P 500 index, close to its historical high. Since the financial crisis in 2008, the reliance on large technology companies has been increasing (Figure 3)
7. As the US election approaches, the inflow of funds from Bitcoin #BTC☀️ ETFs has pushed $BTC above $72,000 (the profit supply has reached 98, and every time it reaches 100, there will be a callback, see the picture)
In addition, since Republican presidential candidate Trump supported digital assets during the campaign, this positive news is called Trump trading, but we should also pay attention to sudden risks, such as Harris reversal or US stock market crash, although the probability is very small (Figure 4)
8. By September 2024, Brazil's cryptocurrency imports increased by 60.7%, exceeding the total volume for the whole year of 2023.
