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US Treasuries Collapse, How Long Until the Bull Market Begins?
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上周行情在多个币种的“12H高点形成信号”的影响下走了震荡回落,大饼最低下探到9.1附近,出了1H低点后反弹,而以太则是下跌到3260附近反弹回升,相对大饼走势较强,反弹突破高点后,周末最高打到了3750附近。周末行情延续震荡上升,市场的走势和上周末有点类似,几大主流 BTC,ETH,BNB,SOL集体熄火,部分山寨MEME和二梯队币种走强,比如XRP,EOS,LTC,SHIB都出现超过10%的上涨,行情赚钱效应仍然还在,只是切换了地方,大多数币种开始走出自己的独立行情。这也是上周我们提到的要开始关注“山寨行情”了,其实这么走对于市场是好的,从大饼独自吸血,到主流山寨普涨,让大多数人赚到钱,才会更有牛市的味道,接下来仍然可以持续关注。从BTC的大周期看,大饼还是属于一个高位震荡的过程,虽然有12H高点压制,但短期转熊的概率不大,不过由于前面连续三周的上涨消耗了大量的做多能量,那么走个一两周的震荡和调整是完全正常的。目前来看,大饼仍然还是在12H高点的影响周期内,从4H级别来看,倾向于B浪反弹后的震荡,再上的话,9.85会是B5的高点。而如果结束B浪反弹走C的话,那么下方需要先破9.55附近,可关注4H级别下方连线趋势线。以太由于上周拉升后,有想走独立行情的意思,只是目前看还没有产生较大的拉升延续,并且3700附近陆续出了多次的6H高点及4H高点,说明上升动力缺乏,如果不能一举突破,就将面临短线调整,本周关键位在3750,下方回落调整支撑也可关注上升趋势线。总的来说,几个主流币种这两周都出现了滞涨,并且伴有4-12H不同周期的高点信号产生,另外行情开始在老牌主流和山寨币当中蔓延,所以节奏上会有所变化,行情一旦开始分化,那么机会就相对分散,操作难度会大一些,震荡行情就可参考高低点信号,高空低多。
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