Daily Share

After Bitcoin surged to 69,500 a few days ago, it continued to fall for two or three days, and the lowest price fell to 65,260, which instantly poured cold water on everyone's bullish sentiment. Fortunately, the 1h level rebound that started yesterday successfully rushed to 68,000, and the highest price reached 68,850. This shows that the trend here has not deteriorated further, so there is hope that it will continue to rise in the future.

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BTC mid- to long-term

Weekly:

At the weekly level, the probability of a weekly level rise starting from 49,000 is getting higher and higher. Currently, it still lacks the final confirmation of breaking through 70,000, but I personally think that this rebound is most likely a weekly level rise.

The weekly MACD has completed a golden cross above the 0 axis. Historically, the probability of breaking the previous weekly high after a golden cross above the 0 axis is very high, so it is very likely that it will continue to rise here.

In addition, from the repeated testing of the pressure level, the upper 69500~72000 range belongs to a strong pressure area. Generally, if a certain pressure is repeatedly tested, the probability of breaking through it will be very high. The more times the pressure level is tested and the longer the time span, the easier it will be to break through it later. So I personally tend to think that the weekly line should continue to break through here.

If the starting point of 49,000 is a new weekly level rise, my personal minimum expectation for the upper target is around 95,000, and the highest expectation needs to be observed as time goes by.

Judging from the weekly single K, if Bitcoin re-engulls the big positive line of the previous week, that is, Bitcoin falls below 62,500 again, we will deny the judgment that the weekly level rise has begun.
 

Daily Line:

At the daily level, there is currently a daily rebound from 49,000. Will this rebound end at 69,519? I personally think that the probability of a real effective breakthrough of 70,000 is still very high, because the current bullish trend is still good. If Bitcoin is still in a bearish trend of weekly decline, this 80-day rebound from 49,000 should not reach 69,500 again.

A downward trend generally has one rebound wave that is weaker than the previous one, and the price gradually weakens. If a round of rebound during the decline is very strong, but continues to fall below the previous low after the rebound, this round of rebound needs to be short, catching everyone off guard, and then the subsequent decline will be relatively smooth.

However, the rebound from 49,000 to 69,500 was a relatively strong rebound, but this rebound took a long time, about 80 days, which shows that it experienced repeated turnover in the middle and the support was gradually consolidated. I personally think that the probability of continuing to fall rapidly below 49,000 is very low.

So I think subjectively, the probability of the current rebound breaking through 70,000 is very high. If Bitcoin successfully breaks through 70,000, the short stop loss in the upper 70,000~72,000 range will be hit, and Bitcoin should rush to around 74,000~75,000. Then there will be a daily level correction back to around 65,000, and then the main upward wave will start to rise to 90,000 or 100,000+.

Why is it that after breaking through 73777, there will be a wave of retracement, rather than directly rushing to 90,000 or 100,000? From the relevant indicators, even if this round of breakthrough, it is still not the main rising wave. The price needs to continue to adjust the indicators before it starts to rise sharply. If this is the case, the altcoin may experience another roller coaster ride after rebounding again.
 

4H：

At the 4h level, theoretically, this short-term round should be a 4h level correction, that is, it will fall back to around 65,000 before the end of the month. Of course, if the short-term breaks through 69,000 again, it means that the 4h level correction has not come out, and the 4h level rebound continues to extend upward. The specific situation needs to be observed tomorrow afternoon.

If it falls back to around 65,000 and holds up effectively, then the next 4h level rebound is likely to reach 70,000 to around 75,000. Then a daily level correction will begin. The white arrows and green arrows in the above figure are preliminary estimates of future trends.

 

BTC short term

Due to the rapid changes in the short-term market, the article can only predict the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market and use it as a reference only.

1H：

At the 1h level, it is not certain whether it will hit 68,800 again. If it does not hit, it means that it is already in the third 1h level correction. If it hits 68,800 again at night, it means that the 1h level rebound has been extended again. As long as it does not break through 69,000, it is still within the scope of the 4h level correction.

It is more expected that there will be a 1h level consolidation this week, and then a retracement to 65200, and then a new 4h level rebound will start to around 75000, as shown by the yellow arrow in the above figure.

 

15M：

At the 15-minute level, we will see whether it will continue to rush to around 68,800, and then if it fails to reach 69,000, it will start a 1h level pullback to around 66,000. Of course, if it fails to reach 68,800 at night, it will continue to make a 15-minute level pullback, forming a 1h level pullback, as shown by the red arrow.

If it breaks through 69000 again, there is a probability that it will continue to rise to extend the 4h level rebound from 58964, but the 4h level callback has not come out. This is a situation we need to consider.

ETH

Daily Line:

The most frequently asked question is actually about Ethereum, because many people do not do much Bitcoin spot trading, and most people buy Ethereum spot trading. At the same time, Ethereum is closely related to the so-called altcoin season. The current bull market of Ethereum is the worst in history. One reason is that the current market value of Ethereum is very high, and the market does not have enough funds to support Bitcoin and Ethereum to reach historical highs at the same time. Another reason is that there are more and more altcoins in the market, which gradually disperses the funds in the market.

The most important thing is that it is different from the two bull markets between 2015 and 2021. In the first two bull markets, Ethereum, as a public chain with smart contracts, had applications that were unmatched by other public chains, far ahead of other public chains on the market. However, 21 years later, there are more and more similar competitors to Ethereum, such as the public chains launched by major exchanges themselves, and the TRON chain of Sun Ge, who likes to imitate others the most, which is almost the same as Ethereum. When Ethereum has not yet seen explosive and leapfrog development in terms of technology, naturally there is not much capital favoring it.

The above is an analysis of the fundamentals of Ethereum’s relatively poor performance this year. From a technical perspective, I have made some simple forecasts on future trends. Whether it can run as expected remains to be seen.

Under normal circumstances, the daily level rebound of Ethereum should hit 2830 again. The expected target is the range of 2830~2950. The long-term long-short dividing line of Ethereum is mainly around 3000. If this daily level rebound cannot break through 3000, then Ethereum should have another daily level correction. Most of the corresponding altcoins may take another roller coaster ride after a subsequent rebound.

The next daily correction should not fall below 2100. I personally expect it to fall back to the 2200-2370 range (there is a prerequisite here, that is, in the subsequent rebound, the price of Bitcoin cannot directly and effectively stand above 3000), and then break through 3040 to around 4000. The final overall goal may be to break the historical high again, that is, 4800.
 

1H：

At the 1h level, it is uncertain whether Ether will hit 2560 again in the short term. If it hits 2560 again, it means that the 1h level rebound has been extended. Then there will be a third 1h level correction. At the overall 4h level, Ether may fall again to around 2400. After this 4h correction is over, there should be another 4h level rebound to above 2800.
 

Trend Direction

Weekly level: The direction is upward. The probability of a new weekly rebound is gradually increasing. 70,000 is still the key observation point.

Daily level: The direction is upward, and it remains above 65,000. The daily rebound has not ended, and it is expected to reach around 75,000.

4-hour level: The direction is downward, and a 4h level correction is expected. 65,000 becomes an important support

1-hour level: The direction is downward, and a 1-hour level correction is expected. If it does not fall below 66,000, it will consolidate a 1-hour level center and then fall back to around 65,200.

15-minute level: Direction downward, see if there will be a third 15-minute level decline​​​