A few days ago, a friend messaged me asking: How can I buy coins that are going to be listed on Binance in advance?
This is a very good question because many people know that if a certain token can be listed on a mainstream exchange (like Binance, OKX, Coinbase, etc.), it will directly act as a catalyst for the token's price to rise. The problem is that such insider information may only be available to a very small number of insiders within the exchanges or corresponding interest groups beforehand. If I could accurately know which coin is going to be listed on Binance next, I would definitely buy it with my eyes closed; this kind of coin is likely to yield considerable returns on the first day of its official listing.
Although I can't answer this question that almost everyone wants to know, since this topic has been brought up, let's discuss it from a few other angles.
1. Does listing on Binance mean it will definitely rise?
From the general public's intuitive feelings or historical data, as long as a token can be listed on Binance, it is basically considered stable. For MemeCoins, it is even more like a carpe diem, inevitably leading to a surge because being listed on Binance means an increase in liquidity (thanks to Binance's large user base), enhanced trust and visibility, and support from dedicated teams or market makers.
However, this does not mean that once listed on Binance, a token can maintain an upward trend indefinitely. In different historical periods, we may find some differences, for example:
During the last bull market, taking the example from September 2020 to November 2021, the main narrative in the crypto market was DeFi and various high APR projects. During that bull market, the most intuitive feeling was that you didn't need to understand too much about a project's fundamentals or tokenomics; as long as a project had a chance to list on Binance, you could simply buy blindly and make money.
However, since the start of this bull market cycle, the main narratives have changed significantly, especially around March last year (2023), when the ARB airdrop ignited the market. Various narratives have begun to enter a relatively early stage of explosive growth, such as Layer 2, airdrops, AI, memes, BRC20, and other hot concepts are increasingly attracting attention and discussion.
Shortly after, around May last year, RDNT began gaining attention again, and Binance Launchpool also started to enter the public's view and attract participation (the previous Launchpool was in 2022). In fact, from that time, in some respects, it seemed to herald the imminent start of this bull market, although not many people were paying attention to it at the time.
However, as time goes on, Binance's increasingly frequent listing speed seems to have slowly aroused more dissatisfaction among people, until it began to ferment in the community around May and June of this year. Many have openly complained that Binance frequently listing new coins is just harvesting retail investors, and I remember at that time He Yi (co-founder of Binance) wrote a long article to respond to this issue, as shown in the image below.
Of course, we can't blame everyone for complaining because the actual performance of some new coins after being listed on Binance has indeed disappointed many. For instance, the CATI that many people bought started to decline from the second day after its listing. As shown in the image below.
This may lead to some people, especially those who have experienced the previous two bull markets, feeling very unhappy; they seem to have been trapped at the beginning because, in their historical experience, coins listed on Binance should not exhibit such performance during a bull market.
In fact, the issues mentioned above could be caused by various factors. Each bull market has similarities but also definitely has differences; we can't completely copy historical experiences. Particularly this year (2024), with the successive approval of BTC and ETH ETFs, the logic of the crypto market has undergone significant changes. In previous bull markets, any token listed on Binance could be bought during the bull market and still make money, but as this bull market progresses, we should not view this matter so absolutely. We may need to separate and analyze it.
First, concerning projects launching TGE on Binance.
TGE, or Token Generation Event, refers to the events when tokens are first launched on Binance, such as DOGS, CATI, HMSTR, etc. Whether such projects can perform well and sustainably after being listed on Binance depends on their narrative capabilities and the timing of their listing. If both the narrative and timing are perfect, then the tokens listed on Binance will surely find buyers.
Secondly, projects that had already undergone TGE before being listed on Binance.
Tokens that we are relatively familiar with, such as PEPE, WIF, TON, RON, had actually undergone TGE before being listed on Binance. This means that these projects had already experienced a period of accumulation and development before being listed on Binance, and some projects also established a solid product and community foundation. These tokens inherently have a certain grassroots following (liquidity and trading volume). Continuing to list such projects on Binance can be considered a win-win choice for both the project team and Binance.
Therefore, for those who are currently very keen on chasing potential projects that may list on Binance, our advice is that you might need to slightly change your mindset. It's not that any coin that could possibly list on Binance will definitely make you money; you might also need to make some distinctions and conduct a comprehensive assessment based on the project's narrative capabilities and the current market timing (such as considering Bitcoin's trends, macroeconomic conditions, etc.).
2. I heard Binance charges a listing fee?
I'm not exactly sure about this because I haven't participated in Binance's listing myself. What I say below is all rumors or hearsay; you can just take a quick look:
- The latest coin listed on Binance a few days ago (October 22) was SCR (Scroll), and it's said that the project team spent $100 million in listing fees to jump the queue.
- It is said that for a project to be listed on Binance, the project team needs to hold and stake $5 million worth of BNB, plus pay a fee of 8% of the total token supply.
In summary, there are basically two types of coins that want to be listed on Binance: one requires the project team to invest a large amount of money to get listed on Binance, most of which are tokens with high FDV, where ordinary retail investors may just end up holding the bag. The other type is tokens that already have a good foundation, and Binance also needs to capitalize on this traffic.
Of course, there are also those who believe that projects backed by investments from Binance/Coinbase/Paradigm/A16Z (i.e., projects with Binance investment backgrounds or financial strength) have the best expectations for listing on Binance. This can also be considered a direction for selection; interested individuals can study and position themselves accordingly, as shown in the image below.
3. How is the overall performance of tokens listed on Binance?
Among all tokens listed on Binance since 2024, if you bought directly upon listing, except for six tokens, all others are currently showing losses. The token with the highest gain is NEIRO, which has risen 379% since its listing on September 16. Additionally, over half of the tokens have dropped by at least 30–80%, with the highest drop being AEVO, which has fallen 88% since its listing on March 13, as shown in the image below (data is up to the time of writing this article).
In summary, the price increase or decrease of any project (token) is determined by various factors. Being listed on Binance is merely one catalyst among them. Although, based on performance, all tokens listed on Binance tend to experience a significant surge on the first day, it does not mean that this upward trend can be sustained. We need to consider the current market timing, the project's fundamentals, and narrative capabilities simultaneously.
Many people tend to chase new coins rather than old ones, so they sometimes pursue those that have potential or have just been listed on exchanges (like Binance). In fact, we mentioned the idea of chasing new coins in previous articles, but everything needs to be viewed dialectically; otherwise, one can easily fall into one extreme or the other.
Overall, participating in projects that have been listed on Binance is definitely less risky compared to various DEX projects that could rug pull at any moment. We cannot only accept upward trends while being unable to tolerate downward trends. If you cannot withstand market fluctuations (the price volatility of the tokens you purchase), then you should not participate in any trading.
We will conclude this content here. More articles can be viewed through the homepage of 'Li Hua Wa'. The above content is just personal perspectives and analyses and is intended for learning and communication purposes only, not constituting any investment advice.
