Face the reality, both for myself and the market, we must face the reality.

The short order at 63200 was not closed over the weekend, and the profit at 62000 was not closed. The market was still mocking the leeks. The stop loss at 63500 was pulled down on Monday. I didn’t post anything yesterday. Many people were waiting to criticize me, but I didn’t do it. Today I will leave the comment section for you to criticize. I know you have been suppressed for too long. I will give you a place to vent your emotions.

I didn’t update the article yesterday, not because I was afraid to face it, otherwise I would continue to hide today, and at most I would jump out in ten days or half a month. The real reason is that yesterday’s pull-up seriously deviated from the track of my prediction of the market. For this extreme market, I will not explain or blame others. No matter what the reason is, I was wrong, stopped loss, and lost money. These are all facts. Accept this fact and face reality. I didn’t update because my thoughts were not straightened out and the reason for the pull-up was not found. Since the market has already pulled up, it is an objective fact.

Let me first tell you what I was doing yesterday. I spent a whole day and night helping those who had short positions between 64,800 and 65,000 to lock in their positions, reduce their positions and lower their risks, and also persuaded those who wanted to short yesterday not to enter the market.

The intuitive feeling that the market yesterday gave me was outrageous and unbelievable. After the rise, I have been looking for reasons. This reason is not for me to shirk responsibility. Those who are familiar with Hunter know that I never care about taking the blame. I just want to try to understand this round of rise and understand the meaning and purpose of its existence. Only then can I infer the subsequent market.

Today I will try to tell you my understanding of this wave of market conditions and deduce a logical line, and then we will gradually verify it through today and tomorrow’s market conditions.

It is totally illogical. It dropped to 59,000 on Friday and quickly reversed and rebounded. It stepped back to 62,500 support at the weekend and continued to accelerate upward. From a technical perspective, it is a standard upward trend, and it is a strong upward trend. The conclusion I drew from Friday’s article is that the leeks will explode, and the explosion point has also been found, which is the short position of 61,700.

So from the weekend market, I verified the market according to the inference and determined that there were no short orders in the weekend market, or the number was extremely small. The hunter opened a short position when there were continuous pins at 63200. This order has already been lost, so I won’t talk about it. The point is that there are no short orders on weekends. We all know that the market maintains fluctuations within the cycle. This kind of fluctuation is essentially a state of balance between the long and short sides, wrestling with each other. When one side is exhausted or one side suddenly gets help, this delicate balance will be broken, and the market will trigger a unilateral movement, and then enter a new cycle of fluctuations, over and over again. Specifically, in the market, it is a long-term fluctuation, occasionally unilateral.

Conclusion: After there were no short orders in the market over the weekend, the long-short balance in this market was broken in a short period of time. Judging from the results, if all the short orders were gone and the bulls won, the market should continue to move unilaterally until the long orders were closed on a large scale and the short orders re-entered the market, then the market will enter a period of volatility.

In the real market, 63200 could not get further unilateral rise over the weekend. As the pressure of 63200 was continuously broken through by pins, the retail investors had no motivation to enter the market as the pressure level became invalid. Instead, the price started to fall slowly from 63200 and then accelerated to 62000 over the weekend. Only the main players came in to cover the short orders.

On Monday, the market fell to 62,000 in the early morning, returning to the concentrated bullish position in the market. The 62,500-62,000 area is where the whole market wants to enter long orders. According to my understanding, the main force enters the short market to take these callback long orders. As a result, the market rose violently.

Who is pulling up the market? It’s not the main force, but the opposite of the main force. In the past, when hunters did analysis, they would first find a target. Which target group is the main force targeting today? The leeks, the technical school, the trend school, the theoretical model school. To put it bluntly, they want to play a one-on-one game and are unwilling to play a group game, otherwise they will kill a thousand enemies and lose eight hundred of their own.

Then from the above analysis, we can see that the area of ​​62500-62000 on Monday is the position where leeks, technical school, trend school, and theoretical model school enter the market together. This position provides expectations for rising, room for rising, sufficient entry time, and a rational entry point.

Judging from the market alone, the main force has lost its grip this time and is facing the challenge of the entire market. There is almost no difference in size between the two sides, and the size of the market is even larger.

Main force perspective: So many people are standing at 62000-62500 to fight with me. Can I kill them with one blow? If not, will I have to face a round-robin battle? This consumption is also a challenge to my funds. If I don’t have enough backhands and the funds cannot be supplied, I will be killed. Be rational, I will let you enter the market first. Sun Tzu’s Art of War talks about avoiding the strong and attacking the weak. Temporarily avoid the edge and run first. Everyone in the market pulls up together and starts to charge.

Since it is a charge, the formation will be disorganized, some people will slack off, some will not be physically able to keep up, some will run fast, and some will run slow.

Leek: Long order, stop profit at 63200 continuous pin position (law of short-term 500-point profit)

Technical school: long orders, take profit at 64200 (a strong pressure position at the technical level)

Trend faction, theoretical faction: continue to be bullish at 68000-70000, the bull market has started, continue to catch up with the main force, it is better to chase the remaining courageous ones than to seek fame by imitating the tyrant.

In the current market, all parties have dispersed their formations, and no matter whether the market rises or falls in the future, they will be defeated one by one.

And another particularly important reason for yesterday’s rise was South Korea. South Korea is a force that cannot be ignored in the cryptocurrency world. Time is limited, so I will talk about it tomorrow. Then everyone can think about these three points first.

1. In the new round of confrontation between China and the United States, one side is attracting capital into China, and the other side is preventing capital from fleeing the United States.

2. Who is the driving force behind the tense situation on the Peninsula over the weekend?

3. Who was the Joint Sword B island-taking exercise on Monday for? Taiwan or the United States?

Now let’s talk about today’s market and the subsequent reasoning. Try not to make any operations today and tomorrow, and focus on verification. Unless you have my contact information, you can try according to my ideas.

Technical aspect: The triangle oscillation of the weekly bull-bear cycle level converges into the top breakthrough stage (69,000 top), which has not yet been broken. The breakthrough of this position completely ignites the bull market sentiment.

Hunter’s idea: Even if this position breaks through, it will not be pursued. The current time node is unreasonable. The Fed’s interest rate has not fallen below 3%, the money has not been released, and the news of the Fed’s interest rate cut in November has not been implemented. If this position is broken in advance, the suspicion is too great. Although this position is close, it has not been broken, and there is no opportunity to bet on the top.

On the daily line: Today should form an M top, which means there will be another rise today, unless it falls below 64800, otherwise it will be an M top. This top is the previous high of 66700. It does not matter whether it breaks here or not. You can go short once at the previous high and go when it breaks. The stop loss is about 50-100 points. Go short again when it falls back to this position, and the stop loss is 500 points.

Reason: Even if it breaks through 66700, it will not reach the top of 69000. On the contrary, no one dares to short. However, the M double top falling pattern will be completely formed, and the conditions for completing the reversal decline will be met.

The rhythm of the subsequent market, the price fell to 63200-63500 on Wednesday and rebounded strongly, but the closing price was still at this position. The strong decline accelerated on Thursday, breaking 63200, 62500, and 61700 successively. On Friday, it approached the 60000 integer mark again, and even fell below it.

The market will plummet from next week, and before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in November, the price will be pushed below the 53,000-50,000 area. This target is still in doubt for the time being. Specifically, it may be through the interest rate cut node to play with a group of people. There is still a long time, so there is no need to elaborate on it today.

At the end of the article, I just want to tell everyone who reads Hunter’s articles that it doesn’t matter if you don’t understand, and don’t argue about right or wrong. No matter how you and I make profits or losses, it is our own business. Right or wrong is not important. What’s important is to sort out your own thoughts. To put it bluntly, my articles are for people who carefully study the market, not for those who have no knowledge. I’m not asking you to just follow the positions. Even if you do, you will lose 300 points. The most terrifying thing is to go all in after looking at the positions, completely ignoring the stop loss and not thinking at all. Does the stop loss point I gave mean that the thinking is wrong? So when you are partying, I congratulate you on making money, and you can also criticize my operations as much as you want. However, can you eventually keep the money earned by luck?