The sharp market correction in early October has left some investors worried that October, which has historically maintained an upward trend, will be different.

After BTC jumped to the peak of $66,000 at the end of September, it did not stop there, but experienced a thrilling retracement, reaching the valley of $59,000. But it was the ups and downs that gave birth to a more violent rebound storm! Since October 11, the market situation has changed suddenly, with a sharp increase of 3.67% in a single day, announcing the return of the rising market. The price returned to the high ground of $63,000 like a broken bamboo, and then rushed to $66,500.

At the same time, Ethereum surged from $2,300 to $2,650, a single-day increase of more than 6.52%, marking the largest single-day increase since August.

In the market ignited by passion and hope, the public chain sector SUI, SEI, APT, the stable currency sector ENA, the AI ​​sector ARKM, WLD, memes and other sector targets have seen a sharp rise.

In terms of contract data, short positions suffered heavy losses. In 24 hours, the entire network was liquidated at $246 million, and short positions were liquidated at $210 million. BTC open interest data also soared to above $37 billion.

With a swarm of altcoins, has the second half of the bull market really begun?

BTC spot ETF sees large net inflow in a single day

Since the beginning of October, although there has been some net outflow of funds, it has roughly balanced the net inflow. Starting from October 8, there has been a three-day consecutive net outflow, with a total net outflow of nearly 180 million.

On October 11, the data showed a big reversal, with the Bitcoin spot ETF’s net inflow reaching $253.54 million in a single day, setting a new record for single-day net inflow since October. After the large inflow of OTC funds, the price of BTC also rose sharply on the same day.

The confidence of off-market funds remains relatively firm.

The Fed will continue to cut interest rates, and market expectations are stable

This week, the United States released two major inflation data for September, CPI and PPI. The year-on-year and month-on-month increases of the overall CPI and core CPI exceeded expectations, but the year-on-year increase of CPI of 2.4% was still the lowest since February 2021. PPI was flat month-on-month, indicating that inflation has further cooled.

Although September's CPI and PPI inflation data were mixed, the final readings were still close to expectations, indicating that US inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target and that the Fed is approaching its inflation target.

After two blockbuster inflation data releases this week, traders are betting almost certainly that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its November and December meetings.

Old American election

Historically, crypto markets tend to rally around election results. The results are coming in on November 5, with just 20 days to go.

As of now, Trump's chances of winning are significantly ahead of Harris.

Currently, the market is more inclined to believe that Trump's election as president will be good for the crypto market. However, given that all US presidential candidates have released crypto-friendly remarks and opinions, no matter who comes to power, the negative impact will be minimal.

Trump was in power from 2016 to mid-2020, and Biden was in power from 2020 to 2024. The BTC-dominated crypto market has experienced strong bull markets during their respective cycles.

Judging from the market historical performance in the past two cycles, no matter who comes to power, it does not affect the upward trend of the crypto market.

After the election results are officially released, some funds that choose to wait and see may change their hesitant style and choose to boldly bet on the crypto market.

Despite Bitcoin’s subdued price action this week, “market sentiment has remained largely unchanged, as evidenced by stable perpetual swap funding rates and open interest over the past week.” The macro factors influencing cryptocurrency performance are shifting from monetary policy to the outcome of the U.S. election, and market expectations for rate cuts remain broadly stable despite the recent rise in CPI and core PPI.

China’s fiscal policy briefing this Saturday could indirectly impact the cryptocurrency market, especially during a time when many markets will be closed. Crypto markets could be used to express a proxy view on the size and force of any fiscal policy announcement.

The actual price for short-term holders (around $63,000) becomes a key level. A break above this level could trigger further gains, while a failure could lead to a retest of the $59,000 support level.