| Previously, people thought, "If I don't hold Chinese assets, it means I'm losing money." After a long weekend, overseas fund managers will decide whether to increase or reduce their holdings of Chinese assets.
——This weekend feels longer than ever before, with random thoughts and speculations flying around, and many traders can't wait for China to open.
At the opening of this week, the Chinese stock market saw its largest single-day gain in history. Now, the headlines of well-known overseas financial media are all about China, and global traders are once again focusing on the Chinese market, waiting to be shocked.
1. Since everyone has different views on this press conference, there will be "big waves" as soon as the market opens. The financial market will give its own evaluation of the press conference on Saturday.
When retail investors look at the specific numbers, the word "larger" (possibly slightly higher than market expectations) will be a guide for their operations. What they need to think about is to what extent the market has digested the incremental stimulus policy of "in line with 2" or "slightly higher than 2".
Ordinary investors look at where the money is flowing and whether it can solve key problems (real estate and inflation).
Elite investors are observing the atmosphere and whether there is a "sense of urgency" in this meeting, which did not reveal more details, to determine whether this is a "major turn" or a "tactical rebound."
In fact, it is a good thing that the specific figures are not announced. If they are announced, they will be quickly priced in by the restless market, and there will be no focus for speculation in the future. It is best to keep expectations and hope.
2. Bitcoin opened on Saturday and closed higher. If the press conference is linked to Bitcoin, it can be seen as providing a positive signal, which stimulates market risk appetite. But from a technical point of view, even without the Chinese meeting, the probability of Bitcoin rising on Saturday is still very high.
3. According to our survey, most investors are optimistic about the performance of A-shares next week (53% are bullish, 31% are bearish, and 16% are neutral).
At the same time, investors are also optimistic about U.S. stocks (45% bullish, 34% bearish, 21% neutral) and gold (50% bullish, 30% bearish, 19% neutral). In terms of the degree of bullishness among these three markets, A-shares are the most bullish.
4. Risks in overseas markets require high attention. The Wall Street Fear Index VIX closed above 20 every day this week, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through 4% - these are two figures with warning significance for Wall Street. Not only does the Chinese market not price in this risk, other markets also do not price in this risk.
5. In addition, two Fed officials have hinted in their speeches that they support suspending interest rate cuts in November. However, due to the vagueness of their statements, the market has not fully understood them.
Much of what you see is an illusion. #9月美国CPI实现6连降 #加密市场反弹 #美联储会议纪要曝9月降息幅度有分歧 #多军的反击