The global trend of releasing funds is gradually unfolding, and signs of a bull market have quietly appeared. However, compared with the last bull market, the increase this time is not significant, mainly because the rhythm of water release is different.
In 2020, in response to the impact of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve quickly cut interest rates by 150 basis points, and countries around the world followed suit. This rapid monetary easing drove Bitcoin's explosive rise, causing it to soar to $65,000 in half a year, a 20-fold increase. Afterwards, due to the cessation of monetary easing, Bitcoin only rose slightly to $69,000 at the end of the year, basically the same as its high point in April.
The pace of water release in this cycle is relatively slow, and interest rates are expected to be cut by 200 basis points in the next half year, rather than falling to the bottom as quickly as in 2020. Therefore, this bull market is more like the continuous rise process in 2017, which lasted for a year and a half. There was no significant increase in the currency circle from March to September this year, mainly because the Federal Reserve has not yet cut interest rates and the market lacks incremental funds, resulting in sideways trading. But now, with the United States, China, Europe and other major economies (except Japan) gradually moving towards quantitative easing, coupled with the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, a bull market is brewing.
All investors need to do is hold their assets patiently, and they may get a 3 to 10 times return next year. In the short term, if Trump returns to office in early November, it may become a hot spot for the market, and Bitcoin is expected to break through the previous high, rising directly by 20%. It is not impossible to reach $100,000 by the end of the year.
From the weekly chart, Bitcoin has not yet broken through the downward channel. Only when it breaks through and stabilizes above $69,800 can it be confirmed that the decline has ended, the market has reversed, and the fourth round of halving bull market has entered the fast lane. Before the Fed's interest rate cut brings liquidity, the market may experience a wave of continuous declines, mainly in the form of wash-outs, which may be a negative decline, a shock rebound, and then a continued negative decline, or even a rapid decline, leading to retail investors selling at a loss and leverage removal.
If this idea is valid, we are now in the stage of rebounding and then continuing to fall, and there may be a stampede-like plunge in the future. This plunge may be triggered by the release of the US CPI on the 10th or a black swan event (such as the Iran-Israel conflict or the US stock market crash). Therefore, it is recommended not to buy all positions. You can buy half first and leave half of the funds to patiently wait for the opportunity for Bitcoin to fall around 59,000 or 54,000. If a black swan event really occurs, add positions decisively when the price drops to 49,000.
