bBitcoin has pulled back again, again, and again!
The market always moves in the opposite direction of the majority.
After the US CPI data came out last night, the expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut in November was dashed, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 85%.
Bitcoin's price rose from about $53,000 on September 8 to $66,000 at the end of September, and it took nearly a month to rise. Everyone had expected that the price would continue to rise in October, but as expected, the price opened low and ended low in October.
Looking back over the past decade, the average increase in Bitcoin in October was 22%. However, is this going to break the routine or be averaged out?
Don’t worry, it’s only October now. Let’s look at the news first:
The US government is preparing to sell 69,370 bitcoins seized from the Silk Road market, and 15,700 ETH related to the Chinese PlusToken scam are dumped.
The war between Israel and Iran escalated, the Ethereum Foundation sold another 100 ethers, and Justin Sun sold 600 bitcoins, causing panic.
There has been a lot of information about the Air Force in the past week. Let's take a look.
1. The United States may soon sell 69,000 bitcoins, and the stolen BTC from Silk Road will be confiscated and auctioned
After years of litigation, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit issued an order at the end of last year approving the ruling originally made in August 2023, formally confiscating the 69,370 bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies related to the Silk Road.
Since the court has ordered the U.S. government to dispose of the confiscated property of the defendant in accordance with the law, the U.S. Marshals or other agencies may soon receive instructions from the court to sell the 69,370 bitcoins that were once stolen from Silk Road, which may have a headwind effect on the short-term price of Bitcoin.
Looking around the world, governments of many countries are filling their fiscal gaps by selling cryptocurrencies seized by law enforcement agencies.
The German government previously sold 50,000 bitcoins, perhaps to ease their financial pressure. Right now, the US presidential election is at its most critical stage.
In July of this year, former President Trump promised at a conference in Nashville that if he was re-elected as US President, he would include Bitcoin in strategic reserve assets.
Therefore, the market speculates that if Trump wins the election, Bitcoin will soon surge to $100,000.
But there are also rumors that the current Democratic government in the United States may quickly sell off all remaining Bitcoins before the US presidential election.
2. 15,700 ETH related to Plustoken were transferred, and more than 7,000 ETH were sent to CEX
According to a tweet from on-chain analyst @ErgoBTC, a large amount of ETH related to the Plustoken scam was transferred yesterday.
About 15,700 ETH (worth $1.3 billion) was transferred from known addresses, of which more than 7,000 ETH was sent to exchange deposit addresses.
This operation is similar to the mixed pattern of Bitcoin (BTC) in 2019 and 2020, and @ErgOBTC believes that all $1.3 billion worth of ETH may be sold in the future.
Currently, the wallet has been transferred to CEX, and it is still unknown when it will be sold.
3. The war between Israel and Iran escalates
It depends on the situation of the war between Israel and Iran and how many countries will be involved. The situation in the Middle East is still very delicate.
Israel's enemies are not limited to Hamas and Iran. If a large number of other armed forces join in and make a bigger noise, and if the war between Russia and Ukraine is added, it is hard to say whether it will provoke a third world war.
The Iran-Israel war has brought risk aversion to the cryptocurrency circle. It is unknown when the conflict will escalate again in the future, but the impact on the currency price is only short-term.
Even if the escalation of the Iran-Israel war is considered a possible black swan event in the future, it may be difficult to change the basic cycle law of Bitcoin.
4. Ethereum Foundation sells another 100 ETH
According to Spot On Chain, the Ethereum Foundation sold another 100 ETH last night in exchange for 242,828 DAI. This was its first ETH sale in October.
In September, the Ethereum Foundation sold 1,250 ETH (about $3.06 million)
The Ethereum Foundation has an annual budget of approximately $100 million, which is mainly composed of grants and salaries, and some grantees can only accept fiat currency.
Therefore, selling coins is a normal operation. It is not that Vitalik needs funds to pick up girls, nor is it that the Ethereum Foundation is deliberately crashing the market.
We must understand that the rise and fall of Bitcoin has its own cycle, which cannot be changed by one event, one country or one organization.
It is a trend that the price of Bitcoin will reach a minimum of more than $140,000 per coin in 2025. All we need to do is to follow the trend and make money.
Some people say that if everyone knows about the bull market, the bull market will not come. Then let me ask you, in the previous three cycles, everyone knew that Bitcoin would have a bull market every four years. Why did some people still lose money in 2021, the last bull year?
Knowing does not mean that he will firmly believe it, nor does it mean that he can do it, nor does it mean that knowing this information can make good use of it to make money.
To be more frank, it’s not that the old investors have seen through the four-year cycle, but most of them have gradually accepted this concept after experiencing a complete cycle.
But there are still a large number of newcomers whose understanding of Bitcoin is still stuck in the concept of tulips. Although everyone knows the cycle of historical verification, there are always people who will question it or even do the opposite.
They will leave the market just after the bull market arrives and the investment has been recovered a little, and then rush into the market with fomo when the bull market is about to end, and ultimately learn at the cost of a cycle.
Human nature is like this. It is very difficult to teach people. If you teach people something in one go, they will learn it. The cost of applying it to Bitcoin is a four-year cycle.
So, you either follow an old investor and trust and execute unconditionally.
Or every time you want to sell your Bitcoin, think more about where the end point is, instead of always focusing on the fluctuations in three or two months.
