This round of bull market has been given the characteristic label of "policy-driven", and its core strategic intention is to help state-owned enterprises and local governments effectively alleviate the pressure of huge debts. The core strategy to achieve this goal is to realize cash and use it to resolve debts through the issuance of additional stocks. Based on this background, we predict that this round of bull market will go through the following five unique development stages:

Start-up phase: The stock market, driven by strong policies, has shown a rapid upward trend. Retail investors are attracted to the market as if by a magnet, while foreign capital is on the sidelines and has not yet intervened on a large scale. The market characteristics of this phase are that the daily trading volume rises rapidly to the range of 1 to 3 trillion, and the index may soar by 400 to 600 points in a week. Just like in the early stages of some bull markets triggered by favorable policies in history, the market enthusiasm is high, and retail investors actively follow suit, pushing up the stock market together.

Steady rise stage: As the stock market continues to rise, the upward trend gradually stabilizes. At this time, foreign capital begins to enter the market tentatively with small amounts of funds, while institutions actively adjust their layout, and retail investors' confidence remains firm. The daily trading volume remains at the level of 2 to 4 trillion, and the index rises by about 300 to 500 points in a week. The market atmosphere is enthusiastic, and the stock market has become a hot topic on the streets.

The shock adjustment stage: The stock market enters a shock period, and foreign investment increases, but there are differences between institutions, and some retail investors begin to show caution. The daily trading volume fluctuates between 3 and 5 trillion, and the index rises and falls between 200 and 400 points in a week. Investors' mentality is complex and changeable. They expect the stock market to continue to rise, but they are also worried about the possible risk of decline.

Correction phase: The stock market shows a clear correction trend, foreign capital partially withdraws, institutions reduce their positions to avoid risks, and retail investors fall into panic. Daily trading volume drops to 1 to 3 trillion, and the index may fall 300 to 500 points in a week. The market atmosphere is tense, and investors begin to reflect on their investment decisions and seek coping strategies.

Stabilization and recovery phase: After a period of correction, the stock market gradually stabilized. Foreign capital returned to the market, and institutions began to re-position, while retail investors hesitated to enter the market again. Daily trading volume rebounded to 2 to 4 trillion, and the index rose between 200 and 400 points in a week. The market began to look for new growth points and development directions to accumulate strength for the next round of growth.

Conclusion: This round of "policy" bull market not only carries the heavy responsibility of resolving debts, but is also a practice of capital market reform and innovation. Under the guidance of policies, the stock market has experienced a complete cycle from skyrocketing to correction and then to stabilization and recovery. For investors, this is not only an investment journey with challenges and opportunities, but also a profound market education and investment philosophy baptism. In the future market, we look forward to seeing a more mature and rational investor group to jointly promote the healthy development of China's capital market.

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