On several occasions, the price of Toncoin (TON) has shown itself ready to retest the $7 mark. However, since the end of July, almost every time it approaches this region, it retreats, leaving investors worried.

Fortunately, BeInCrypto has identified a daunting sell wall that is preventing Telegram’s native cryptocurrency from sustaining a sustained rally. This on-chain analysis reveals all the details and what TON needs to successfully overcome this point.

Most Toncoin holders are at a loss

Toncoin is currently priced at $5.20, representing a 10% drop in the past seven days. This also means that the token is down 37% from its all-time high, with around 75% of its holders in the red.

These TON holders are currently at a loss because most of them accumulated at a higher value than the current price. In fact, the In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) reveals that Toncoin’s price may not rise substantially unless some of these holders give in.

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Specifically, IOMAP provides insight into support and resistance using the volume bought at a given price point. The higher the volume or cluster, the higher the support or resistance. For Toncoin, around 5.33 million people hold 610.55 million tokens and buy the token at an average price of $5.23.

This volume is higher than the volume purchased by those who bought it between $4.49 and $5.05. It is also much higher than the volume purchased by the 8,330 addresses currently at breakeven. As such, TON is less likely to receive support from these addresses.

IOMAP da Toncoin. Fonte: IntoTheBlock

Instead, the token may face major challenges in breaking above $5.23 as this zone is a significant supply wall. Furthermore, the Mean Dollar Invested Age (MDIA) is another factor preventing Toncoin’s price from breaking above $7.

MDIA is the average age of all tokens on a blockchain, weighted by their purchase price. As it increases, cryptocurrencies become increasingly inactive, making it harder for prices to rise.

Average Age of Dollar Invested in Toncoin. Source: Santiment

On the other hand, a falling MDIA indicates that the tokens are starting to wake up, thus increasing the chances of a rally in the near future. As seen below, the MDIA for TON has risen, suggesting that the tokens’ inactivity may restrict the token from moving higher.

TON Price Prediction: Bears Remain Dominant

At the time of writing, Toncoin price is trading below two important moving averages: the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA. Additionally, the 50-day EMA (yellow) has risen above the 20-day EMA (blue), suggesting that sellers are dominant.

As it stands, the bears may attempt to push the TON price below the $5.12 support. If successful, the token’s value could drop to $4.89, making it difficult for Toncoin to reach $7 again.

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Conversely, if Toncoin rises above the EMAs, the bears may fail to validate the expected dip. Instead, Toncoin price may overcome the $5.67 resistance and rally towards $6.18.

Toncoin Daily Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

The article Sell Wall Prevents Toncoin (TON) Advance – Analysis was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.