1. Israel launched air strikes on several areas in southern Lebanon, and the strike further escalated tensions, with many residents fleeing the affected areas

2. The US public debt has reached a record high of 35.7 trillion. Since September 27, the public debt has increased by 345 billion, or more than 100 billion per day.

From 2020 to now, the federal debt has soared by 12.5 trillion, while the US GDP has only increased by 7.1 trillion. In other words, the growth rate of the federal debt is almost twice that of the world's largest economy. Isn't it terrible?

And #国债 accounts for 123% of GDP. It may only be a matter of time before it exceeds 126% in 2020 (the highest record).

An interesting phenomenon is that among the G7 countries, only Japan and Italy have a higher ratio (Figure 1)

Regarding the public debt and GDP issues, I believe the following risks will arise:

a. When debt levels are too high, the government may need to increase taxes or cut spending to repay the debt, which will lead to slower economic growth

b. It may lead to higher borrowing costs, and may even be similar to the debt crisis that some countries have experienced in history

c. Inflation risk: large-scale debt monetization, such as through printing money, may lead to inflation or even hyperinflation.

d. It also poses international reputation risks. High debt may affect the credit rating of the United States, and thus affect its economic and political influence in the world.

So, will the United States use monetary policy to control the extent of interest rate cuts to reduce the cost of government borrowing?

But this may also have some side effects: if economic growth does not keep up, the debt ratio relative to #GDP may continue to rise, and even if interest rates are cut, the increase in debt may not be sustainable unless economic policies bring substantial productivity and growth.

3. Gold #Gold may rise further. For example, in 2007, a year before the financial crisis, gold began to rise. When the economic recession officially began in 2008, the price of gold rose by 50%. Gold is inversely correlated with real economic growth. When investors predict that the US dollar will depreciate, they will turn to gold.

4. The September consumer price index will be released this week. Based on the base effect of last year and the recent increase in oil prices, the consumer price index#CPIwill remain strong at the end of this year. This will make the market more confident in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's policy meeting in November. As the economy outperforms the market, one of the risks in the future is that the rate cut may be smaller next year, considering four 25 basis point rate cuts instead of a series of rate cuts.

5. Inflation is trending downward for now, although there are concerns, the labor market is stabilizing, and real GDP growth is strong compared to the past 25 years. We should be optimistic about a soft landing.

6. The National Bank of Poland increased its gold reserves by 22 tons in September, and now holds a total of 420 tons, accounting for 16% of total reserves.

7. The latest election forecast#Trumpexceeds Harris by 54%, while#Harrisdrops 3 percentage points to 45%. If Trump wins, this may be the most optimistic cycle for Bitcoin (Figure 2)

8. According to Politico: If Trump #Trump is elected president, Robinhood Chief Legal Officer Dan Gallagher may replace Gary Gensler as#SECChairman

9. Compared with other assets, Bitcoin #BTC☀️ outperformed most of the benchmarks (Figure 3)

10. Australian Bitcoin $BTC ETF continues to rise (Figure 4)