The US election has always been the focus of global attention, and its results have a significant impact on the United States and the world. If the election ends early, it may bring about a series of changes. On the one hand, quickly determining the president of a country can improve decision-making efficiency to a certain extent, especially in the face of major crises. But on the other hand, it may also cause controversy because the process is too hasty. We should look at the US election with an objective attitude, and at the same time, we also hope that the US political system can continue to improve and elect a national president who truly works for the welfare of the people and contributes to world peace and development.
Market Analysis
After BTC hit 60,700 on Friday night, it rebounded by $3,000 this weekend. On Monday morning, the market began to discuss heatedly whether to return to the A-share market tomorrow or continue to stay in the cryptocurrency circle. I don’t think this is a conflict. Don’t be too black and white. Investment itself is an investment in diversified high-quality targets. You can allocate according to your own funds!
BTC focus: Support 61850-62000/60300, Pressure is tentatively set at 64500. It hit a high on Monday, and it will never change. You must reduce your positions, and never chase highs!
At the moment, BTC was consolidating at 61850 over the weekend, and started to surge in the early hours of Monday. It has already gone beyond the $2,000 space and is very close to the next resistance level. On Monday, it is generally better to wait for the resonance of the three main forces in Europe, America and Asia to force shorts or longs in the evening to make a profit and loss decision, and the safety factor is also the highest!
80% of the orders on weekends should be executed, and 20% should be kept as the bottom position to protect the principal and loss.
Potential negatives this month
The Middle East war continues to escalate, oil prices have soared, and the US CPI has rebounded beyond expectations. However, these two things have not happened yet. The cryptocurrency market is close to the end of the adjustment in terms of time, including the last round of bull market, which started in October. However, the macroeconomic situation may have to wait until the election is over before it becomes clearer. This month, we will continue to follow the band idea.
People often mention that 2025 will usher in a crazy bull market and say that this is the last chance for retail investors. There are several main reasons for this:
1. Closely linked to the U.S. economy
The next round of market trends is highly tied to the US economy.
2. Expectations of monetary easing after the US election
2024 is the year of the US presidential election. There is a high probability that there will be a large-scale monetary easing in the 1-2 years after the election. If the president changes, monetary easing is almost inevitable, and the domestic monetary easing is likely to follow.
3. Domestic policy risks are reduced
In terms of domestic policies, the policy risk that was once the biggest destabilizing factor in the cryptocurrency market has now been eliminated. After the full withdrawal of mining, its influence on the cryptocurrency market has been very low.
4. New Groups Joining
We can see that young people with high education and from middle-class or higher families are constantly joining the cryptocurrency circle. This has happened in many emerging industries. They are expected to become new legends and drive more people and more funds into this market.
On the whole, factors favorable to the cryptocurrency industry are dominant, and this is also the most objective analysis at present.
After talking about the macro level, let's talk about the micro level. When the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle comes, more people who have achieved economic freedom will surely emerge. This bull market must be extremely crazy. The influx of a large amount of funds and retail investors will make this industry known to more ordinary people, and Bitcoin will gradually become popular. When an industry gradually becomes popular, the opportunity to make money will disappear. Isn't this the case with A-shares, Taobao e-commerce, and real estate speculation? When everywhere is overcrowded, the profit will end.
