10.6 Market Analysis
At the end of the National Day holiday, we return to the battlefield of cryptocurrency speculation
The National Day holiday ushered in a peak of return trips, but compared with the travel, the days of returning to cryptocurrency speculation are undoubtedly more exciting.
Two recent abnormal phenomena need to be vigilant
Non-agricultural data reacted abnormally. Although the non-agricultural data was bearish, the market expected that the Federal Reserve might only cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, but the currency circle did not fall sharply as a result.
After a brief adjustment, BTC quickly rebounded from 60,000 to $62,000, showing strong market resilience. On-chain data abnormality The conflict between Israel and Iran has caused significant market fluctuations, but on-chain data shows that BTC is flowing out of the exchange.
From October 3 to October 6, more than 8,000 BTC have flowed out of the exchange, and this trend deserves close attention.
This week's focus events
Israel may continue to take military action Yesterday, Israel once again took military action against the successor of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and may further retaliate against Iran's oil facilities. The Biden administration hopes to avoid rising oil prices, so the White House is cautious about attacking Iranian oil facilities. The probability of the conflict continuing to expand is 50/50. If the conflict does not escalate, it is positive, and if it breaks out, it is slightly negative. CPI data will be released at 20:30 on Thursday. If the CPI data is higher than expected, it will be negative for the market, further confirming that the Fed will only cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November. If the CPI data is lower than expected, it will be positive for BTC, and it is expected to break through $65,000.
The general trend is bullish
Overall, the general trend is still bullish. Once the conflict between Israel and Iran is resolved, large funds on the sidelines will be expected to enter the market. $BTC is expected to continue to fluctuate upward, and investors should remain patient and pay close attention to market dynamics.
