Today is the fifth day of the holiday. While everyone is immersed in the festive joy, the Hong Kong stock market has been crowned the best stock market in the world.
Hong Kong stocks surged on the first trading day of the National Day holiday. Self-media brought in traffic crazily, and the entire network was in a frenzy. The money-making effect stimulated all those who did not open an account. Rural aunties and uncles were already tempted to open an account. #
With the help of self-media propaganda, news of the stock market boom directly attracted everyone's attention. After all, with the stimulation of a 10-20 point increase every day, the screen was full of red, and it was pushed on short video platforms that focus on algorithms. Our greetings are also changing. During the holidays, the most common thing people say is not where you went to play, but have you opened an account?
On the fourth day of the A-share holiday, the Hong Kong stock market went crazy again. The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets reversed in a week and became the most beautiful stock market this year. Who could have thought of this script? The screenwriter would not dare to write it like this. The stimulus of 800 billion yuan of funds in the A-share market led to the A-share counterattack and the surge of the Hong Kong stock market. And all this may not be over yet.
On the other hand, in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has fallen drastically in the past few days, with a loss of almost 10%. Even if the leading cryptocurrency is in such a state, the copycat and MEME coins are not much better. Although the entire crypto market is in disarray, why can it still be patched up recently? #加密市场急跌
This is the reason why Bitcoin plummeted:
1. First, a big fight breaks out in the Middle East
Friends who remember it may have seen in the news that the Americans told the staff and family members of the U.S. Embassy in Israel to evacuate on their own. Anyone who knows a little about finance knows that in an unfavorable environment, the financial market plummets, and the bricks and tiles that were originally raised by interest rate cuts were instantly knocked down. Perhaps you have seen the rockets that Lao Yi has posted, and you may have a small share of it.
2. Powell's speech attitude changed, and the interest rate cut was reduced from 125 basis points to 100 basis points
Although the Fed will still cut interest rates to help the economy, it is not in a hurry. This also made many analysts feel embarrassed. They said that the economy is still okay now, and the Fed wants stability and does not want to cut too much at once. Although yesterday's non-agricultural data was surprisingly good, exceeding everyone's expectations, and the number of new jobs was nearly double the market's expectations, the unemployment rate also unexpectedly fell.
3. Japanese stocks plummeted and circuit breakers were triggered, driving crypto assets down
Those who remember it still remember the sharp drop of Bitcoin in early August. At that time, Japanese stocks also plummeted and triggered circuit breakers. If you ask the reason, it may be the new prime minister's three fires.
4. Bad data: US JOLT job vacancies higher than expected
The latest JOLT job vacancy data shows that job vacancies in the United States have surged to 8.04 million, while the market expected 7.65 million. Although this data shows a strong labor market on the surface, it hides potential economic instability, causing the market to worry about the future of the economy and exacerbating the volatility of the crypto market.
5. US manufacturing PMI fell sharply
It dropped to 47.2%, lower than the expected 47.5%, and contracted for the third consecutive month. To put it bluntly, there are problems with the US economy, which has led to pressure on the crypto market.
In sharp contrast to the stock market, no matter which stock market in the world, if there is such a surge, there will be a plunge. This time, the central bank is leveraging the market and the top leaders are going long on Chinese assets. The core is to complete the debt transfer through the surge, transfer bank deposits to the stock market, and use the policy-driven artificial bull market to get everyone to take the initiative to gamble in the market.
Many people will ask, isn’t Bitcoin digital gold and a safe-haven asset?
The price of gold has been strong all the way, rising since the massive money printing. After the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine, it has further consolidated its safe-haven properties. However, the price of Bitcoin is gradually drifting away from gold. So is it a good time to buy at the bottom now?
Currently, the crypto market sentiment is not in place, which may be a sign of a market bottom.
Federal Reserve interest rates have a significant impact on the market. At present, attitudes towards the extent of interest rate cuts are still changing.
Taking into account the liquidity of the market, as mentioned earlier, interest rate cuts and monetary easing will not enter the market directly, but will take a certain amount of time.
The Bitcoin bull cycle is 100 days earlier than its typical four-year cycle, so will we see another double top pattern during this cycle?
Then another question arises: Where is the bottom of Bitcoin’s short-term selling pressure?
In the past few days, $3 billion worth of Bitcoin has been sent to exchanges at a loss, and these chips are all held by short-term holders. Although these chips will not affect the sale of long-term chips, they will affect the short-term price of Bitcoin.
And it's not just short-term chips. Miners are also selling off, also constrained by spending pressure. After all, Bitcoin cannot break through here, but miners need to survive.
In addition, the intensified fighting in the Middle East caused the cryptocurrency market and US stocks to plummet, which was an unexpected event. However, according to past experience, the impact of such an event is unsustainable, so it is a short-term negative and will not affect the general trend of the cryptocurrency market in October.
At present, the final short-term support is temporarily at 60,000 US dollars, but if the biggest pressure level of the bulls at 62,350 US dollars is not broken, there is still a risk of falling in the short term.
Finally, what opportunities are contained in the decline of the cryptocurrency market?
Let’s first talk about the general election in November, which is the closest one as everyone knows.
As the 2024 US election approaches, global markets are once again entering a period of high volatility. As a bellwether for international investors, US stocks often fluctuate sharply during election years due to political uncertainty and policy expectations. In addition, the Fed's monetary policy is complementary. If the economy performs well in the election year, the Fed may continue to maintain the pace of interest rate hikes, pushing up the US dollar exchange rate; if the economy shows signs of slowing down, it may adopt an easing policy, leading to a weakening of the US dollar. #9月小非农数据高于预期
At present, there is only one month left. No one wants Harris to be elected at this time. This is equivalent to a negative event, and Trump’s election is undoubtedly good for cryptocurrencies.
Secondly, the trend of Bitcoin indicators has not broken, which is a healthy correction. With the arrival of the interest rate cut cycle, Bitcoin may gradually get rid of this price range in the next four quarters. After a few days of sharp decline, BTC, ETH, SOL, PEPE, SUI, DOGE, WIF, FET, AAVE, BNX are all in a good ambush stage! $SOL
Finally, from a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin began to soar after the September 4 incident in 2017. In 2020, once the 312 liquidity crisis was over, the bull market came again. Although Bitcoin was cut in half in 2021, the bull market continued. In 2022, the market was really ruthless. Retail investors, project parties, miners, institutions, and exchanges were all "baptized". But once the bottom was stabilized, coupled with the Fed's interest rate cut, the bull market came quietly.
Although this narration has ended, I would like to share my opinion on whether to increase holdings in A-shares or cryptocurrencies: #大A香还是大饼香
Overall, after the central bank released the signal of introducing liquidity for A-shares on September 24, it is highly likely that the incremental entry will continue in the medium term. Although A-shares have risen for 5 trading days, there is a certain selling pressure. But we know that just before the National Day, we launched the Dongfeng intercontinental missile, and Qian Xuesen's ballistics shocked the world. So this deterrent still protects our investors. The opening rise after the holiday may take a break, but the subsequent impact is not significant.
Therefore, those who did not buy A-shares before the holiday will definitely miss out after the holiday. Even if the bull market of A-shares and the bull market of Bitcoin start simultaneously after the holiday, then in terms of the rise and fall range and the amount of funds, one is a domestic investment product and the other is an international investment product, A-shares are far inferior.
Looking at the cryptocurrency world, possible changes in the future
1. Cryptocurrency funds are being siphoned off, and altcoins will suffer further
We are in the early stages of global interest rate cuts and money has not yet fully poured into the market. The rise of A-shares will also attract some players in the cryptocurrency market. The fundamental reason is the temporary lack of liquidity in the cryptocurrency market.
2. Alternative coins and good coins gradually emerge
Continuing from the previous point, the siphon effect of the currency circle, the poor performance of token prices will further force project owners and VCs to carefully choose projects. Good coins gradually drive out bad coins, and truly valuable projects perform better and better.
3. It is only a matter of time before the liquidity problem is solved
With the arrival of the interest rate cut cycle, liquidity will eventually increase. Imagine that when there was no interest rate cut, many people were bearish on the price to 40,000 US dollars. As a result, the second test only reached 52,000 US dollars. Now with the halving and interest rate cut, there will be no deeper correction.
October is usually the month when Bitcoin starts to rise. The negative impact of the Middle East on the price of Bitcoin is gradually dissipating. The daily RSI of Bitcoin has also reached the oversold level. The current price of about 60,000 is also lower than the price of 200-day fixed investment, which is in a relatively cost-effective period. $BTC
As the crypto market continues to mature and develop, we must also maintain a learning attitude. After all, under the influence of multiple factors, the cryptocurrency world is no longer a place where we only look at morphological indicators.
