On Friday (October 4), the US dollar index rebounded continuously, trading at a six-week high. As the non-farm payrolls data is about to be released, market sentiment is becoming increasingly tense. According to the latest data, the US dollar has been supported for several consecutive days, driven by geopolitical factors and safe-haven buying. The US non-farm payrolls report for September will be released tonight Beijing time. Investors are paying close attention to the performance of the data, especially its impact on the future monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. It also has a great impact on the cryptocurrency circle.
At 15:24 Beijing time, the US dollar index rose steadily due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the risk aversion sentiment. It is currently reported at around 106.43 points, approaching the 50-day moving average. Prior to this, the manufacturing and service PMI data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) pointed to a weak job market, while the ADP private employment report showed that the number of new jobs was slightly higher than market expectations, at 143,000, higher than the previously revised 103,000.
Analysts generally believe that tonight's non-farm payrolls data will have a significant impact on the dollar in the short term. Traders and economists expect that the United States will add 148,000 jobs in September, with average hourly wages increasing by 0.3% month-on-month and unemployment remaining at 4.2%. If the data is stronger than expected, the dollar is expected to strengthen further, thereby suppressing the price of Bitcoin; conversely, weaker-than-expected data may trigger bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, suppressing the dollar and boosting the price of Bitcoin.
Four important leading indicators reported this month are listed:
1. The ISM manufacturing PMI employment sub-index fell from 46.0 to 43.9;
2. The ISM Services PMI employment sub-index fell from 50.2 to 48.0;
3. ADP employment report shows 143,000 new jobs;
4. The four-week average of initial unemployment claims fell from 230,000 to 224,000.
A series of data shows that it is bullish for the US dollar and bearish for Bitcoin. But if the data is the opposite, there may be a strong explosive rise! The first target is 63500. Then it will directly rush to 680000 points!
If the data is normal, BTC may drive all currencies to have a long lower shadow line, possibly touching 58,000 points. Because the market's expectations have already appeared, judging from the data of the day before yesterday and yesterday, the market seems to have digested a lot of the falling sentiment.
Of the three currencies I invested in during the day, the first one was hit with a breakeven, and REEF, which has almost doubled, was reduced. Another one is fluctuating. I still hold the same view, breakeven and hold the position. It is more dangerous not to rush in after the data comes out.
Follow me, at 8:30 am, the square will release non-agricultural data and analyze it on time.
#加密市场急跌 #非农就业数据即将公布 #HBO纪录片或揭示中本聪身份
