Tonight's non-farm data is coming:
The non-farm payrolls data on October 4 is crucial to the Fed, especially the first employment report after the rate cut. Powell has repeatedly stressed that the Fed is paying close attention to the labor market, and the 50 basis point rate cut in September was based on the employment data. He once said that if the employment situation in July was known in advance, the interest rate cut might have been made in advance.
In short, employment data is of great importance to the Federal Reserve. For investors, rising unemployment could signal a recession in the U.S. The Fed is resolute about unemployment, setting a median unemployment rate of 4.4% for 2024-2025 and is reluctant to see it rise.
There are many macro data, but if we only look at one, the unemployment rate is the most critical. The higher the unemployment rate, the greater the risk of economic recession. Tonight's data interpretation:
Unemployment rate: 4.2% last month, expected to be 4.2%. Maintaining or declining is positive, while not rising means that recession expectations are not valid.
Number of employed people: The more the better. Market expectations have dropped slightly, but it is not a big problem. We also need to pay attention to the labor participation rate.
Wages: The Fed once viewed wages as a driver of inflation, but now sees them as a support for the economy.
In short, a non-rising unemployment rate is not a negative factor; if it rises, even a slight increase of 0.1% may cause market panic. Some people expect that rising unemployment will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November, but this may be interpreted as an expectation of recession, which may not be a good thing. Other key data include employment and wage levels.
BTC
The 60000-59500 given by the daily report yesterday may be a support for the time being, with a profit of more than 1000 points! We are still waiting for a downward acceleration, with the target at 59500-59000! Therefore, the price still has a short demand for the first rebound of 61800-62300. If the price reaches 59500-59000, pay attention to the opportunity to buy!
ETH
Yesterday's daily report gave a precise rebound of 2330-2280, with the lowest price at 2310, and a current profit of 70 points! At present, we should pay attention to whether 2403 can be effectively broken through to form structural destruction? If successful, follow up near 2350 and look up to 2480-2500! If it fails, continue to pay attention to the buying opportunities of 2280-2250!
SUN
The price continues to fluctuate downward. For orders near 136 yesterday, you can take advantage of the profit to cash in! Continue to wait for the opportunity to buy at 130-127 below!
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