1. As the risk of conflict increases, some countries are preparing to evacuate their citizens from Lebanon. The governments of the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Spain have arranged military flights, and Cyprus and Turkey are also ready to assist in the repatriation operation.

2. Reuters: Italian President Meloni called on G7 leaders today to resolve the escalating Middle East crisis, focusing on stabilizing the border between Israel and Lebanon. She stressed that Italy, as the current chair of the G7, will be committed to a diplomatic solution and suggested strengthening the UN peacekeeping mission. Despite the recent violence,#Italystill has no plans to withdraw UNIFIL from Lebanon

3. Nvidia #nvidia Mark Stevens, the second largest shareholder and board member, just cashed out $4.8 million worth of shares. A few days ago, he cashed out more than $20 million. It seems that apart from CEO Huang Renxun, the second largest shareholder is not very confident about the future development of Nvidia!

4. Let's talk about the US #stockfuturesposition: The net long position of investors excluding market makers has reached an all-time high. The net position has now exceeded the historical highs set in the first quarter of 2018 (before Volmageddon) and the first quarter of 2020 (before the COVID-19 pandemic crash). Perhaps the truly wild era of US stocks is about to come (Figure 1)

5. Will the US economy have a soft landing? If quantitative easing is too much and too fast, it may trigger inflation again. If the easing is not fast enough, it may lead to a global recession.

6. Damn, US consumer debt hits a new high: US revolving credit surged 9.4% in July to a record $1.36 trillion. In the past three years, revolving credit has surged by about $400 billion, or 40%, setting one of the largest increases in history.

7. The U.S. hiring rate (the number of people hired in the month divided by the number of employed people) in August fell to 3.3%, the lowest level since 2013 (excluding the COVID-19 pandemic). In addition, people's confidence in finding new jobs is much lower than a few years ago. The U.S. job market will continue to be weak. Previously, the U.S. focused on reducing unemployment rather than reducing inflation. However, Powell made a hawkish speech at the last meeting, and the market expects the next interest rate cut to be 25 BP. The two are contradictory.

8. The global manufacturing industry fell into recession. In September, the global manufacturing industry #pmi contracted for the third consecutive month. The decline in global new export orders was the fastest in 11 months. Data showed that global trade volume fell by 3-4% year-on-year, the largest drop since the COVID-19 outbreak.

9. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: Japan is not suitable for further interest rate hikes for the time being, and the monetary easing trend is expected to remain unchanged, so there is no need to worry too much about the stock market crash caused by yen arbitrage in the short term

10. As can be seen from the chart, the ECB's momentum to cut interest rates in October seems unstoppable. Lagarde said frankly: The latest developments have strengthened our confidence that inflation will return to the target in a timely manner. We will take this into account in the next monetary policy meeting (Figure 2)

11. New whales (managing wallets and ETFs) are still buying #BTC☀️ , but old whales seem to be growing slightly more steadily. From the on-chain data, the realized profit and loss ratio has reached the same level as the bottom of this round of bull market and rebounded from oversold. The recent $BTC decline and long liquidation can be understood as a simple leverage kill (Figure 3)

12. As can be seen from the chart, the threshold of US dollar liquidity pressure, which may be the exact clue that the Fed has been looking for, to find an excuse to increase liquidity again and prepare for liquidity, is coming soon (Figure 4)

13. Latest news: BlackRock's #Bitcoin #ibit ETF traded over $1 billion yesterday

14. Reuters: The U.S. Department of Commerce announced plans to allocate $100 million to promote the application of artificial intelligence#AIin the development of sustainable semiconductor materials. The initiative aims to accelerate material development and reduce resource use in semiconductor manufacturing, providing support for universities and laboratories as well as the private sector.