What will happen to the economy if Trump becomes president again? 🏛️💼

If Trump wins the US election again, we already know that he is unlikely to reduce the public deficit. Instead, he could increase tariffs, especially on imports from China, up to 60%. Although in theory, these measures protect local industry, in practice they could have negative effects: rising prices, slowing economic activity and higher unemployment.

And how would the Federal Reserve react? The FED would face a major dilemma. Raise interest rates to contain inflation caused by tariffs, or keep them low to combat rising unemployment. In any case, tensions between Trump and the FED are likely to increase, especially when Powell's term ends in 2025. Trump could seek to replace him with someone like-minded, putting the FED's independence at risk and creating a dangerous precedent.

But this is not just happening in the US. In Spain, we have already seen how the politicization of key institutions, such as the Central Bank, damages their independence.

So, if neither Trump nor Kamala Harris reduce the public deficit, what can we expect? Well, the logical thing is that safe haven assets such as gold and Bitcoin continue their upward trend. With debt increasing and inflation threatening, these assets become increasingly attractive options.

💡 Conclusion: Keep an eye on gold and Bitcoin. In times of uncertainty, they can be a good hedge against economic risk.

What do you think?