Bitcoin price falls below $65,000, what's next?
Bitcoin rose slightly by 0.89% in the third quarter and fell by 3.47% on September 30. But many people in the circle think that Bitcoin will rise in October and the fourth quarter.
Why can Bitcoin reach $65,000?
Bitcoin has been fluctuating for seven months, with a high or low point in the first or third week of each month. Bitcoin fell 10% in early September, but stabilized on September 6 and rose all the way to $65,000.
This is a simple reason why Bitcoin can rise. Of course, macroeconomic policies also helped. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18, and the People's Bank of China also cut interest rates and issued stimulus plans.
Especially in China, the stock market has gone crazy, the most violent day since 2008.
However, some people are skeptical about the sharp rise of Bitcoin this time.
But looking at historical data, in the past 13 years, Bitcoin's average return rate in October was 26%, ranking third; the average return rate in the fourth quarter was 80%, the strongest.
So, it's no surprise that Bitcoin has risen 26% to $65,000 this time. But traders still have to be careful because Bitcoin may pull back.
According to the fluctuation pattern of these seven months, highs and lows are easy to form at the end of the third week and the first week. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin may have reached a short-term high and may pull back next.
When Bitcoin fluctuated in these seven months, the 30-day MVRV ratio formed a high point between 4% and 8%. Now, this indicator has dropped from 8% to about 4%.
It is predicted that Bitcoin may return to around $60,000.
Although there may be a pullback in the short term, it is not necessarily a bad thing because over-the-counter buyers may take the opportunity to buy.
This pullback will not affect the long-term trend of Bitcoin.
Especially since the Federal Reserve expects a soft landing for the economy and the US presidential election is almost over, the price of Bitcoin may rise sharply in the fourth quarter of 2024, and may even hit the historical high of $73,777 again.
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