Bitcoin has risen nearly 9% in September this year, and is expected to break the September curse of falling in the past. Some traders are optimistic that Bitcoin will rise to $70,000 in October. CryptoQuant said that short-term holders are returning to profitability, and their average purchase price is $63,000, which is expected to play a supporting role.

According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin has been cursed in the past. From 2013 to mid-2023, Bitcoin fell eight times in September. However, it has risen 8.85% so far in September this year, and is expected to achieve its best September performance since 2013.

According to CoinDesk, this is expected to lay the foundation for a strong rise in the coming October. Historical data shows that rises in September often foreshadow further rises in October, November and December. Some traders are aiming for Bitcoin to rise from $64,000 to $70,000 in the coming weeks.

Since 2013, Bitcoin has only ended October in the red twice, with the largest gain reaching 60% and the average gain being 22%.

Driven by a series of global monetary easing policies, the depreciation of the yen, increased investment in Bitcoin by institutional investors, and cryptocurrency-friendly policies introduced by both major U.S. political parties, investors are relatively optimistic about the cryptocurrency market ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November.

CryptoQuant is optimistic about $63,000 being supported

CryptoQuant released a market outlook analysis and believed that Bitcoin has risen by more than 23% in the past three weeks, from US$52,500 to more than US$65,000. This strong rise was partly due to the increased demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs. On the 26th alone, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs invested by BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark totaled US$324 million.

Additionally, short-term holders (investors who have moved Bitcoin in the past 155 days) are back in profit, with an average purchase price of $63,000, which is expected to serve as support.

However, CryptoQuant pointed out that the futures market showed signs of overheating, with the current open interest of about $19.1 billion. Since March 2024, the indicator has exceeded $18 billion six times, and each time it has ushered in a price drop. This is the seventh time. At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETF positions are converted into long-term holders. Although this looks bullish, this shift usually occurs in the late stage of a bull market.

Matrixport takes a bullish stance

Matrixport said that although Bitcoin is naturally volatile, its funding rate has returned to a level close to zero, indicating that even in the case of the recent Bitcoin rebound, long positions in the futures trading market are not heavy positions. This provides an opportunity for traders to increase long positions, which may further push up prices.

Matrixport believes that low funding rates also indicate that the recent rise may be driven by spot buying, which tends to be more strategic and long-term rather than speculative futures trading. Overall, this is a positive signal, indicating that the market is not over-leveraged and there is still potential for future gains.