Bitcoin is expected to rise strongly in October on the back of favorable macro factors

Bitcoin (BTC) is up 9% this month, bucking its typical September performance — an extraordinary performance given the cryptocurrency’s historical trend of negative returns during this period. Bitcoin’s bullish momentum in September is expected to continue into October, which has historically been a strong month for cryptocurrencies, according to CoinDesk. Analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach $70,000 in the coming weeks.

Several key macro factors contribute to this positive outlook. Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, told CoinDesk that strong correlations between bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies and traditional macro assets like the S&P 500 suggest that favorable market conditions will continue to support cryptocurrency prices through the fourth quarter of 2024.


October has historically been a bullish month for Bitcoin, and the cryptocurrency’s current momentum suggests this year may be no exception. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has regularly posted double-digit gains in October, driven by improved sentiment, increased adoption, and positive macroeconomic trends. This October, analysts expect the same pattern to play out, driven by both internal crypto market dynamics and external factors such as U.S. economic policy.

One of the most important external drivers is the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Recently, the Fed’s decision to pause its rate hikes has created a more favorable environment for risk assets, including Bitcoin. In addition, the possibility of further rate cuts later in 2024 could further boost investor confidence, leading to more capital inflows into the crypto market.

Political Tailwind: Vice President Kamala Harris’ Pro-Crypto Stance


Another key factor supporting Bitcoin's prospects is the pro-cryptocurrency rhetoric of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris. As a Democratic presidential candidate in the 2024 election, Harris has publicly expressed support for cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology, emphasizing their potential to drive innovation and promote economic growth. Her campaign has stressed the need for clear regulations to protect investors while promoting the development of digital assets.

This political support has made cryptocurrency investors more optimistic, with many believing that governments that support cryptocurrencies can create a more favorable regulatory environment. Therefore, a buy-on-the-dip strategy is expected to be favored by investors looking to take advantage of a short-term pullback in Bitcoin prices.

Correlation with traditional markets: A key factor in Bitcoin’s bullish outlook


Bitcoin’s positive correlation with traditional financial markets, especially the S&P 500, is another key factor driving its current bullish momentum. As Augustine Fan noted, the tight relationship between cryptocurrencies and macro assets suggests that the broader economic environment will continue to support cryptocurrency prices until the last quarter of 2024.

In recent months, Bitcoin’s price action has closely mirrored that of the S&P 500, with both assets benefiting from improving economic data and easing inflationary pressures. This correlation suggests that as long as traditional markets maintain their upward trend, Bitcoin is likely to continue to rise.

Analysts are also keeping a close eye on the U.S. Treasury yield curve, which has been steepening in recent weeks, a sign of optimism about future economic growth. The combination of these factors suggests a favorable macroeconomic backdrop for Bitcoin as we head into the final quarter of the year.

Price Prediction: Can Bitcoin Reach $70,000 by October?


Bitcoin has already gained 9% in September, and analysts predict that the cryptocurrency could continue to rise in October, potentially reaching $70,000. This price target is based on several key indicators, including technical analysis, market sentiment, and macro factors.

Bitcoin’s ability to break through key resistance levels in recent weeks has fueled speculation that the cryptocurrency is preparing for another big rally. As of late September, Bitcoin had been hovering around $65,000, with $70,000 seen as the next important psychological barrier.

If Bitcoin manages to break above this level, it could signal the start of a new parabolic phase, similar to past bull runs. However, analysts warn that the path to new all-time highs may not be without challenges. The market could experience short-term volatility, especially if there are unexpected developments in the broader macroeconomic environment or in the cryptocurrency space itself.

Investor sentiment: Mixed


While Bitcoin’s bullish outlook is supported by favorable macro factors and political tailwinds, it’s worth noting that investor sentiment remains somewhat mixed. Despite the growing popularity of buy-on-the-dip strategies, some traders remain cautious, fearing a possible market correction after Bitcoin’s recent gains.

According to data from Santiment, social media sentiment towards Bitcoin is overly optimistic, which could lead to a temporary cooling-off period before the next leg up. Historically, Bitcoin's price movement tends to go in the opposite direction of popular sentiment, with periods of over-optimism followed by market corrections.

That being said, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive, with many analysts believing that the cryptocurrency is poised for a strong fourth quarter.

Conclusion: Bitcoin’s bullish outlook for October


As Bitcoin heads into October, the cryptocurrency is expected to rise further, with analysts predicting that its price could rise to $70,000. Positive macro factors, political support, and strong correlation with traditional markets suggest that Bitcoin’s upward trend could continue until the fourth quarter of 2024.

However, investors should remain cautious about short-term volatility and market corrections, especially when social media sentiment towards Bitcoin remains overly optimistic. For those looking to take advantage of the upcoming bullish phase, a buy-on-dip strategy may offer an opportunity to enter the market at a more favorable price.

Bitcoin broke its all-time record in September, setting the stage for a strong October as the cryptocurrency once again proved its resilience in the face of macro challenges. As markets continue to develop, all eyes will be on Bitcoin to see how it navigates the final months of 2024.