1. Latest news: If#Harrisand Tim Waltz win, the First Amendment will be in danger. Harris has publicly discussed the possibility of #Facebook and #twitter and Musk may lose his privileges. If amended, it will at least affect the freedom of speech of the American people.
2. Americans currently believe that Republicans will do a better job of ensuring national prosperity than Democrats, leading by 6 percentage points, or 50%, to Democrats (44%).
3. As mentioned yesterday, analysts raised their earnings expectations for #标普500 and temporarily reduced concerns about economic recession. From a technical perspective, the market is still bullish (Figure 1)
4. Today's PCE inflation rate fell to 2.2%, core inflation rate fell to 2.7%, consumer confidence improved to a nearly 5-month high, and the market's consensus on a soft landing will be strengthened as inflation cools down.
5. Gold prices are at their highest level in 40 years, up 29% this year. Gold prices are 15% or 2 standard deviations above their 200-day moving average, which has only happened 8 times in the past 40 years. History shows that gold prices may have risen too much in the short term, and the market may shift funds from gold to other risky assets such as Bitcoin (Figure 2)
6. The Qing Dynasty is facing a deteriorating population structure and over-reliance on the real estate industry. Although the stimulus measures announced so far are unlikely to change this, the demand for housing purchases by investors is decreasing. 87% of Chinese who buy new homes already own one or more houses. By 2030, the population will decrease by about 100 million, which will directly reduce the demand for housing. In the future, those who bet on the Qing Dynasty may need to face some harsh realities.
7. Speaking of the Qing Dynasty, let's talk about the United States: The sales of pending homes in the United States are still falling sharply. The sales volume of pending homes for sale fell by 4.3% year-on-year, setting a record low. The sales volume of pending homes for sale (a leading indicator of second-hand homes) has fallen for 35 consecutive months. This shows that the#USreal estate market needs lower interest rates (Figure 3)
8. Talk about Bitcoin #BTC☀️ Seasonality. The current data is untenable. With the arrival of October, there will be more buying than selling. An interesting phenomenon is that someone bought 225 77K call options expiring in October and sold 225 100K call options expiring in November.
9. Bitcoin $BTC's#MVRVis again above SMA365, which indicates that bulls have regained the initiative. As of now, the MVRV data has increased from 1.71 to 1.9 after the last local bottom (Figure 4)
10. Finally, let’s talk about why the Fed’s interest rate cut is good for #cryptocurrency
a. Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs
b. Encourage investment, that is, investors shift from low-yield bonds to high-risk assets
c. Increased market liquidity has fueled speculative behavior
d. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and benefit the most from interest rate cuts
